OUR corners man Russell Butterworth (@cornerkicktips) eyes up a value bet in the Premier League closing day.
Chelsea v Leicester | Sunday 15:00
After trawling through the stats on a much reduced card, there is one game domestically that stands out with some great looking corner averages.
Leicester travel to Stamford Bridge on Sunday and will surely be looking to round off the season in style against last year’s champions. Chelsea, can still be overtaken by Stoke if they lose here but I imagine their focus will be towards giving their manager a decent send off and putting down a marker for next season.
Gus Hiddink has seen his side draw seven of nine home league games in his second spell at the club but while dropping points to the likes of Watford, West Brom and Stoke may make you think twice about backing them to win this game, their corner count is of more interest to us and at home, this has risen from an average of 10 corners before his arrival to 14 since.
Chelsea have won 6+ team corners in every home league game he has been in charge, averaging 8.4 over the same period.
It’s not surprising that Leicester have been on the receiving end of some big team corner totals away from home this season with their opponents so often chasing the game. They’ve conceded 10+ in a third of their games and average 7.6 corners conceded over the last eight games.
However, Leicester have also been fairly consistent with their corner counts on the road, managing 4+ corners in all but two of their away games this season and over 6 in 8/18 (44%). They average 5.5 corners won over their last eight aways.
Encouragingly, Chelsea aren’t shy in conceding corners at home since Hiddink’s arrival. While Man City only won three corners in their victory here last month, they led 1-0 at the break and ended the game comfortable 3-0 winners so were never really in a position of needing to chase the game.
Stoke (4) Newcastle (3) and Everton (4) have all struggled for corners at Stamford Bridge but also had a lower corner expectancy than Leicester and the home team have conceded an average of 7.25 corners in their four games against the top five away teams. Over the past eight homes their opponents have won an average of 6.13 corners.
I have a feeling this will be an open game with the home team eager to sign off with a victory and the away team looking for a strong finish to what has been an incredible season.
Bet 365 have priced up the over 11 corners market at 10/11 which is a little tight but Chelsea average 14.5 corners over their last eight homes going over 11 corners in 6/8 and Leicester average 13.13 over their last eight aways, going over 11 4/8 so it’s a bet I’m still willing to take on.
Chelsea v Leicester – Over 11 corners (10/11 Bet365)