IRISH football correspondent Dylan O’Neill (@Dylanoneill_95) has unearthed a slice of value in Friday night’s League of Ireland action.
Limerick v Cabinteely | Saturday 18.30
I’ve placed my largest stake this season on Over 3.5 Limerick team goals at 10/11 but at 4/5 (Stan James) there’s still plenty of value to be had in the price.
I reckon think this game is going to be a rout, as do the bookies. We’ve seen Limerick run riot in every single league game so far, winning 4-1, 2-5, 6-1, 0-5, 5-1 and 0-3, racking up astounding 28 goals in just six games – an average of 4.67 goals-per-game.
In comparison, UCD in second and Cobh Ramblers in third have only managed nine and seven goals respectively, so the gulf in ability between these sides is already hugely evident.
I was worried about how Limerick would fare having lost their influential and very prolific forward line in Vinny Faherty, Ian Turner and Dean Clarke. However, having somehow recruited a top four Premier Division player in Aaron Greene and Cork City’s John O’Flynn, they have moved on fast and romped to victory in every match.
As already mentioned, Limerick have smashed pretty much everybody, including teams whom I thought would have posed a bigger threat – UCD (won 4-1), Shelbourne (won 5-1) and Drogheda (won 0-3).
The hosts’ captain Shane Duggan was on a podcast I was listening to on Wednesday night and he admitted Limerick weren’t at their best last time and yet they still scored three, so against Cabinteely, arguably the worst team in the division, they should really be running riot.
It’s also important to note that Limerick’s goals haven’t just come from their midfield and attacking unit. Eleven different players have scored, meaning only goalkeeper Freddy Hall has failed to chip in.
What’s also surprising to note is that defenders Robbie Williams and Shane Tracy have six league goals between them – all of these coming from free-kicks or corners, so I’d be expecting them to add to their tally against a very poor Cabinteely team.
The visitors sit seventh of eight with one (surprising) win from six – a close fought 2-1 win against the team currently sitting bottom – a severely weakened Athlone Town.
Having read Cabinteely;’s match reports from previous games, the guests have been second best on every occasion, including the 1-1 they managed against Shelbourne – a point only fortunately achieved thanks to a long-range free-kick.
Shels manager Stephen Henderson was incredibly frustrated when I heard him in an interview a few weeks after that draw, still frustrated his side had so many chances to take the lead but for an inspired performance from 19-year-old Cabinteely keeper Michael Kelly that afternoon.
The recent 5-0 and 4-0 losses away to Shelbourne and Drogheda further prove how terrible this Cabinteely team are against decent opposition. They were outmuscled from the start and having only entered this division last season it’s beginning to take it’s toll, having had to rebuild their squad once again.
Cabinteely were dealt a blow over the winter, losing several key players in John McKeown, defender Jamie McGlynn and their best striker in Sodiq Ugontola. What they’ve done to counteract that, having lost a handful of more players, is bring in guys with previous experience of playing at U19 level.
However, when it comes to playing Limerick these guys won’t know what’s hit them. With a very youthful squad and an average age of just over 19, these players have little to no experience of playing at this level so with Limerick the only full-time team in this division, it should be nothing less than a home win by three or four goals.
Limerick’s full-time status gives the home side superior fitness levels and a large amount of their goals have come in the second-half when teams have tired – a huge 68% of the hosts’ goals they have scored after the interval with a staggering 42% of their goals coming in the final 20 minutes.
Similarly, 85% of the goals they’ve scored or conceded have occurred in the 2nd half so there’s definitely a bet to be had in this market in-play late on in the match.
For now though my main bet is the Over 3.5 Limerick team goals at 4/5 (Stan James), whilst I’ve also placed a wager on the second-half to be the Highest Scoring Half (10/11 Paddy Power) as well as the 10/11 (Bet365) on Limerick’s Highest Scoring Half being the second-half.
Limerick v Cabinteely – Limerick to score Over 3.5 Goals (4/5 Stan James)
Limerick v Cabinteely – Second-Half to be Highest Scoring Half (10/11 Paddy Power)
Limerick v Cabinteely –Limerick to score most goals in the second-half (10/11 Bet365)
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