AFTER landing his bet of the season on Thursday night Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) now focusses on a Sunday derby match.
Sevilla v Real Betis | Sunday 15:00 | Sky Sports 2
For card punters the greatest fixture in Europe returns this Sunday as the Seville derby takes centre stage. Sevilla host local rivals Real Betis at the Roman Sanchez Pizjuan and I’m so excited I can barely write this piece!
I’ve been grinning like a Cheshire cat all week since seeing that Carlos Velasco Carballo has been appointed to officiate this game. He has given a red in 5/6 games and has history with this fixture too. He has covered it twice before giving 10 and eight cards respectively.
The past ten league meetings between these two teams read as 12-10-8-10-8-10-8-10-4-12. An average of 9.2 cards per game.
As you can imagine there are a lot of very short prices around such as 4/11 on over 65pts. I’m avoiding them in search of more value with three tips for you.
So onto my first selection. Carballo is a referee who likes to stamp his authority quickly. In two previous appearances in this fixture he first booked a player in the 5th and 18th minutes.
The average time of first card over the past 10 meetings is the 19th minute. Credit to Bet365 for doing their homework as they have that as exactly their line this week.
In the most recent four meetings the first card was issued in 4th, 5th, 34th and 6th minutes. An average of 12 minutes. Back the time of first card ‘before 19.00’ with Bet365 at 5/6.
Continuing the first half theme, I like the look of over 3.5 bookings with Stan James at 7/5. As mentioned Carballo likes to get his cards out early. He gave six first half cards when last doing this fixture. I’d expect at least three cards so this is definite value.
Lastly, I expect a red card in this game. In 16 La Liga games this season, this referee has shown eight reds (so a 50% chance). He has shown five in six matches more recently (83%). Plus he sent off two Sevilla players already this term in matches against Valencia and Celta Vigo.
However I want to get with Betis on this one as they are the away team (Carballo gives more cards to away teams – 58%). He also sent off Dani early in the season at Valencia and gave Juan Carlos his marching odds in the last Seville derby he covered. He has form!
Furthermore I think Sevilla will win and I’m hopeful at least one Betis player will get the hump and see red. Back a Real Betis red card at 3/1 with 888 Sport.
Sevilla v Real Betis – First Card Before 19:00 (5/6 Bet365)
Sevilla v Real Betis – Over 3.5 Bookings (7/5 Stan James)
Sevilla v Real Betis – Real Betis Red Card (3/1 888 Sport)
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