MORE bookings glory for Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) in the Euro 2016 play-off first Legs. Now onto the return matches…
Hungary v Norway | Sunday 19:45 | Sky Sports 1
Hungary are without a win in their last five home games against Norway as the sides meet in their UEFA EURO 2016 play-off decider. However, following their first-leg victory in Oslo, they require only a draw to clinch qualification for France next summer.
Under the control of Mark Clattenburg there were five cards issued in the first leg and the stakes have been ramped up considerably now as it is all or nothing for these two nations.
Spaniard Carlos Velasco Carballo is in charge of the second leg in Budapest. By his standards he has been fairly lenient in recent weeks but over a long career he is not normally shy in issuing cards! As I mentioned in my column ahead of the first leg, Hungary are a dirty team. With a lead to protect, I expect that trend to continue.
I’ve analysed the second leg matches from the Euro 2012 qualification playoffs. The cards read seven, seven, two and 12. The anomaly was the game between Ireland and Estonia in Dublin which was effectively finished after the Irish won the first leg 4-0 in Tallinn.
Therefore, the stats indicate that any competitive game after the first leg should have plenty of passion and cards in the return encounter. With Hungary holding a narrow 1-0 advantage this match looks ideally placed. Spanish referees notoriously struggle to keep their cards in their pocket and I’m backing over 45 bookings points at 17/20 with William Hill.
Hungary v Norway – Over 45 bookings points (17/20 William Hill)