OUR man in Rome Marco Di Cosmo (@Scioltz) is back with more of his best bets from Serie A this weekend. Tuck in!
Bologna v Atalanta | Sunday 14.00
Bologna boast the worst home record in Serie A having accumulated just three points from their first five games. They had a narrow and undeserved win against Frosinone to pocket those points and they lost 1-0 against 10-man Inter in midweek in front of their home fans.
Their eighth defeat in 10 games cost Delio Rossi his job and Bologna will now try to see if former Parma manager Roberto Donadoni will be able to keep them in Serie A.
I've rated Bologna as the worst team in Serie A, not for the quality of their roster, but because of their total inability to play organised football. A new coach might be a start, as the former one could not provide any effort, even in their Sere B season.
I think Rossi’s removal may have a positive effect on the club and boost their prospects for the visit of Atalanta. The away side are flying right now but they won't have the hunger they need to win another difficult match.
Bologna are 12/11 with Marathon in the draw no bet market.
Carpi v Hellas Verona | Sunday 14.00
Verona aren’t faring any better than Bologna. With only five points, they share the bottom position but moreover they are the only team in Serie A still without a win in the first 10 games.
Carpi’s adopted home isn’t the toughest ground on earth to visit, though. If you want to try to get a first away victory, you’ve a great chance when travelling to Carpi.
Even a disastrous Bologna side found some joy here, and although it’s true the home side gave Inter, Fiorentina and Napoli tough workouts, they have changed coach from last season and they might not be as aggressive as they used to be.
Backing Verona again with the draw no bet option here is nicely priced at 29/20 (BetVictor)
Genoa v Napoli | Sunday 14.00 | BT Sport ESPN
Two teams at opposite ends of the standings face-off on Sunday with Napoli arriving on the back of seven successive wins. The Partenopei have claimed the scalps of big guns Lazio, Juventus, Milan and Fiorentina during that streak.
Genoa are having one of the most difficult starts of their recent history. The absence of something in attack is really affecting the team, who are too unbalanced and suffer many mistakes at the back.
I've seen Napoli looking much more determined in their recent matches. Despite only winning 2-0 against Palermo, they had a great quantity of chances and hit the post three times.
Quality is the key for Napoli, and if they keep their defensive line tight, I can't see how they could not come out with three points here. They’re 20/23 with Boylesports.
Lazio v AC Milan | Sunday 19.45 | BT Sport Europe
An intriguing match to close the Serie A matchday on Sunday evening between Lazio and AC Milan.
Sinisa Mijalovic's side have been disappointing so far but two consecutive victories saw their high-earning attackers finally earn their corn. Their main issue still remain in defence, though. And despite improving in the past fortnight, I just don’t trust them at the back.
Lazio had similar problems recently but their better quality assured them a good position in the table. I was focused on backing the Romans to win here, as their home record is pretty specials – W5-D0-L5, scoring 11 goals and conceding just one.
But what’s preventing me supporting the hosts is their injury list. With Stephan De Vrij out and problems with their fullbacks, it’s difficult to find the faith in Lazio keeping a clean sheet.
Milan have the quality to score against any team, especially if the opposition does not play defensively. But Lazio's coach Stefano Pioli enjoys playing attacking football and that could cost the home side maximum points.
Considering the high chance of a Milan goal and the low quality of the two backlines, goals should be the right way here. Over 2.5 Goals is odds-against and I am happy to side with that at 15/14 with Marathon.
Inter Milan v Roma | Saturday 19.45 | BT Sport Europe
It’s first against second in Serie A as Inter welcome Roma for another big time match on Saturday night.
I’ve bemoaned Inter’s lack of style and dominance a lot this season and I just don’t see them as real contenders for he Scudetto. They boast the best defence – with only seven goals conceded and four of those came against Fiorentina – meaning they’ve only leaked three in nine matches.
That stat reflects their defensive approach that doesn’t really reflect too well and I certainly don’t admire. It is a countertrend to what Italian football is showcasing these days – Serie A is developing into one of the most offensive and entertaining leagues in Europe.
On the other hand, Roma hold the best attack in the league with 25 goals scored. Across Europe, only Bayern Munich and Dortmund have been more potent.
I see Roma as slight favourites here but I’m reluctant to back goals, as I’m afraid Roberto Mancini will employ his dour defensive style to limit the visitors’ threats down the flanks.
But I reckon I’ve found a decent angle by backing the Giallorossi to score a first-half goal. I’m confidant Rudi Garcia’s travellers will start fast, just as Fiorentina did at the San Siro. This bet would have paid out in 72% of Roma’s 11 games and considering the even-money (Betway) on offer suggests a 50% chance, there’s value in the bet.
Best Bets
Inter Milan v Roma – Roma to score a first-half goal (1/1 Betway)
Bologna v Atalanta – Bologna draw no bet (12/11 Marathon)
Carpi v Hellas Verona – Hellas Verona draw no bet (29/20 BetVictor)
Genoa v Napoli – Napoli to win (20/23 Boylesports)
Lazio v AC Milan – Over 2.5 Goals (15/14 Marathon)
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