NFL Tips | Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | 16th October 2015


THURSDAY night football awaits and Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) has lined up three bets for us.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | Friday 01:25 | Sky Sports 1

Week 6 of the NFL opens in New Orleans as the 5-0 Falcons visit the 1-4 Saints. There were a few out there who may have expected these records to be reversed.

Atlanta were dire last season but Mike Nolan has re-energized a very talented roster and (almost by accident) discovered the league’s number one player right now in Devonta Freeman. An early injury to Tevin Coleman meant the second season running back seeing far more snaps than anticipated. He has responded brilliantly with seven TDs in the last three games.

This Falcons squad has something extra about them though. No 5-0 team in history has won four of those games, coming from behind in the 4th quarter like these guys have. That is hugely impressive on so many fronts and Matty Ice has really lived up to his nickname especially last week after a less than impressive first 45 minutes at home to the Redskins.

New Orleans on the other hand have all sorts of issues. You get a feeling that one or both of Drew Brees and Sean Payton could be looking at their last season. Although I watch Red Zone on a Sunday and so see every score/incident, I have to admit I have seen little of the Saints this year. That sort of tells its own story.

Brees has thrown just six TDs and three INTs, the rushing game just has not got going and the defence just cannot stop anything. The pass rush is non existent and the team rank dead last for yards allowed. Even the misfiring Eagles put 39 points on this team a week ago and then on the offensive side of the ball, the longest run this season is a pathetic 17 yards.

To be honest, I wish I could write something a little more balanced about this game but in essence we are looking at the hottest team in the league against one that is dying slowly (watch NO win by 20 now).

There are a number of guys out there that I talk to on a regular basis. People like @The_Real_Pman, our own @GamePlanGavin and of course @tom_selwyn who provide valuable insight and opinion. The King of MLS @w2Dyer has come up with a particularly nice pick tonight which I am including here. I love talking NFL with anyone so please feel free to get involved on Twitter, there is some amazing knowledge out there.

So, my view of the game is fairly clear. It has to be a Falcons win and I am taking the -3.5 as I expect a far bigger margin of victory. The Matt Ryan passing line is set at 294.5 which looks incredibly high to me so I am going to leave that in favour of two other bets which stand out.

The beauty @w2Dyer found is Atlanta to win and Devonta Freeman to score which I love at 13/8 whilst Tevin Coleman is fit again and has a total rushing and receiving line of just 34.5. I really do not understand that one on any level.

Best Bets

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints – Atlanta -3.5 (20/21 Bet365)

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints – Tevin Coleman Over 34.5 Total Yards (Evens Bet365)

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints – Atlanta to win and Devonta Freeman to score (13/8 Coral)

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About Author

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I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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