A double helping of bookings bets for Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) on Wednesday in the Champions League. These look good.
CSKA Moscow v Manchester United | Wednesday 19:45 | BT Sport Europe
First up, CSKA Moscow will look to build on their home win over PSV Eindhoven when they host Manchester United on matchday three. While CSKA beat PSV 3-2 to pick up their first points in Group B, United also recovered from a losing start in the group as they came from behind to defeat VfL Wolfsburg 2-1 at Old Trafford last time out.
The referee in this one is an old favourite Carlos Velasco Carballo. The Spaniard is not usually one to keep his cards in his pocket and I believe there is an interesting angle for us to exploit tonight.
He has dished out 28 cards domestically this year. 35.7% of those were in the first half and that equates to 2.59 cards per first half.
This bet has won in two out of four Man Utd’s Champions League games so far this season and it’s also paid out in 50% of CSKA’s four matches too.
William Hill are offering a massive 2/1 on 2-3 cards in the first half and that looks great value given the stats.
Galatasaray v Benfica | Wednesday 19:45 | BT Sport Extra
My second pick is the Group C clash between Galatasary and Benfica in Turkey. In their previous encounter there were five cards.
In their respective two group games so far, Galatasary have picked up an average of two cards and Benfica an average 3.5. That implies 5.5 cards in this game.
The whisteblower in this one is Scotland’s William Collum. Wee Willie has dished out a red in each of his past two games and is coming into form.
In his past ten European matches he averages five cards per game and again, I think the stats support backing over 4.5 cards at 4/5 with Bet365.
CSKA Moscow v Manchester United – 2-3 First Half Cards (2/1 William Hill)
Galatasaray v Benfica – Over 4.5 Cards (4/5 Bet365)
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