A 2/1 winner on Sunday for Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) in his Euro 2016 column. Let’s hope for more on Monday.
Armenia v Denmark | Monday 17:00
I’m dipping into Group I for my Euro 2016 bets and once again focussing on the Armenia game. Yes, they let me down on Friday when losing 2-0 in Serbia but one day they’ll come good at a big price. That may be on Monday but I’m not prepared to back them at 18/5 against Denmark.
Denmark endured the worst result in their history against Armenia in 2013 when losing 4-0 to them on home soil. Those scars will take a long time to heal but the Danes have beaten them twice since.
I’m expecting a very tight encounter here so I was fairly surprised to see Under 2.5 Goals trading at 5/6 with Boylesports. Neither side look particularly threatening up front and I was expecting something more around the 8/13-4/6 mark.
The Danes have scored just eight goals in their six matches and three of those came in one match against Serbia. Four of their six qualifiers went Under 2.5 Goals and they failed to score in Albania on Friday night in a 0-0 encounter.
Armenia have been disappointing sadly. They’ve accrued just one point in this campaign although they’ve been far from outclassed. Four of their five defeats have come by the odd goal so they have nothing to be ashamed of. Five goals in six games isn’t good enough though and 50% of their matches have gone Under 2.5 Goals.
I can’t see many goals in this game at all. Armenia have been eliminated and may down tools but as we saw in the last campaign that’s not really their style. The Danes look edgy and blunt and they may find it hard to penetrate the goal. Under 2.5 for me.
Albania v Portugal | Monday 19:45 | Sky Interactive
We’ve heard loads about Wales, Iceland and Northern Ireland in these qualifiers but not much about Albania. That wrong needs to be put right by the mainstream media.
The Albanians find themselves deep in the Group I mix and are guaranteed at the very least a play-off in November. They could get to France automatically for sure though and getting something at home to Portugal would be just the tonic.
Gianni De Biasi’s side have already won in Portugal in this campaign and go into Game 6 unbeaten. On top of the Portugal win they’ve beaten Armenia and been awarded a win against Serbia (Google it if you’re not sure why, I don’t have the time to explain). Friday’s 0-0 draw in Denmark was further proof that this side are the business.
Portugal have managed to steady the ship after that home defeat to Albania and have won their following four fixtures in this group. All wins have come by just one goal though and they’ve only scored seven overall.
Albania have the best defence in the group and I think they’ll be tough for the Portuguese to break down. 9/2 is overpriced for Albania (what would Denmark be at home against Portugal? Not that for sure) but I’ll opt for a couple of correct scores instead.
1-0 Portugal is possible and at 51/10 it’s a decent if unspectacular price. That will go in the book. I’ll also back 0-0 at 7/1 with Bet Victor.
Armenia v Denmark – Under 2.5 Goals (5/6 Boylesports)
Albania v Portugal – 1-0 Portugal (51/10 888 Sport)
Albania v Portugal – 0-0 Draw (7/1 BetVictor)
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