FIVE winners from his last six picks. Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) is in great form! He’s got another bookings bet here for Thursday night.
Empoli v Atalanta | Thursday 19:45 | BT Sport 1
Let’s face it, Empoli hosting Atalanta on a Thursday night wouldn’t normally set the pulse racing; however I believe there’s an interesting angle for us.
The whiste-blower in this one is Claudio Gavillucci and he tends to operate at Serie B level where he averages 7.4 cards per game. Interestingly, he gives 82% of his bookings in the second half of matches and based on his stats that would suggest around six in the second half is the norm.
He has very limited top flight experience but did take charge of the Serie A clash between Palermo and Carpi recently and gave four of his six cards that day in the second half. Prior to that he dished out six second half cards in the Genoa v Parma Serie A match last season.
Atalanta have picked up 58% of their cards in the second half so far this season and Empoli 50%. Before the latest round of matches Atalanta were Serie A’s most ill disciplined team.
When Empoli and Atalanta met last year in two drawn games three cards were given in the second half in both encounters so this should go close.
My recommendation is over three cards in the second half with William Hill at the juicy price of 7/5.
Empoli v Atalanta – Over 3 Second Half Cards (7/5 William Hill)
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