LOUIS Ross (@LouisRoss67) looks to continue his hot streak with four selections from the John Deere Classic.
John Deere Classic | 9th-12th July 2015 | Sky Sports
As I (kind of) predicted, last week saw a big price winner and a leaderboard of ‘who?’. My selections all made the cut but best placed was Tony Finau in 13th. Apologies to anyone who followed. Let’s get back on track this week.
Silvis, Illinois hosts the traditional US version of an Open warm-up. The Scottish Open is the more traditional route. More of that later. A Par 71 of some 7,268 yards, TPC Deere Run is another in this run of what are basically putting contests.
The course saw heavy rain in June and storms earlier this week. With an average winning score recently of -22, expect another Birdie fest. It may however, play out like last week. Some really low scoring in the first two rounds and then a bit of wind on Saturday and Sunday may well keep the winning score below -20.
This track will suit those who can plot their way round and convert birdie chances at a fairly high rate. Looking back at recent scores, it seems those who rank highly in both Bogey Avoidance as well as Birdie Average tend to do very well here. I think I have a few of those at decent prices.
So Jordan Spieth has chosen to honour his commitment to the organisers and play here rather than Scotland. Whilst that is an honourable thing to do and says a lot about the young man, it’s seems fairly short-sighted for a man chasing the holy of holy’s, the Grand Slam. He now doesn’t see St Andrews until Monday at the earliest. He absolutely will not be in next week’s piece.
Anyway, he is 7/2 here – that’s ridiculous. To be honest, there is nobody I would back at 7/2 in a field of 130 odd. Good luck to you if you do.
The shortlist this week was so difficult to narrow down. Brian Harman (defending), Ryan Moore, Jerry Kelly, Jason Bohn, Scott Brown, Steven Bowditch, Boo Weekley, Kevin Kisner, Patrick Rogers, Daniel Summerhays. About as long a list as I have ever had at one point.
The reason for telling you that, is to be honest it’s an incredibly open one this week. My own bets were placed on gut feeling alone. To me, this week is about finding value. Players who I feel have everything needed and are attractive enough to recommend.
Scott Brown has finished seventh, 24th & fifth in his three appearances here including a second round 61. He clearly likes course and 66/1 (BetVictor) is value enough for a guy who has a great record on these kind of tracks.
Probably in the best form of his career, he has a great chance to better last year’s performance. Not the guy with the best chance of my picks, but certainly the best value (thank you to @RossMcintosh1 for the stats on him – made my day easier).
Next? Steven Bowditch. The big Aussie has never made it to the end of season play-offs but sits 14th in the FedEx Cup right now. He loves the Bentgrass Greens he will find here and like Brown has shot a 61 here when not playing anything like as well as he is now. He’s 66/1 with BetVictor and again we’ll take him each-way.
Boo Weekley is an old favourite of mine. A wonderful character, this old fashioned Redneck hits a golf ball almost as well as anyone I have ever seen. If you ask me to name a golfer who could shoot 59 on these kind of courses, then (apart from Kevin Na obviously) I would always say Boo. Five Top-10s this year makes 90/1 (Stan James) look very generous.
I need to have one top quality reliable player in here and although I wouldn’t take these odds in many tournaments, fourth favourite Ryan Moore is probably slightly long at 28/1 (888 Sport) when you see Kevin Kisner priced at 16s. It’s his type of challenge and if I priced this, Moore would be 16s – not Kisner.
Meanwhile, it’s The Open Championship next week and I’ll be looking for a third Major winner of the year. Because the event is so relevant and a really good field, I will pop up again with a Scottish Open preview so stay tuned; the Claire Balding of WLB!
John Deere Classic – Scott Brown to win (66/1 BetVictor)
John Deere Classic – Steven Bowditch to win (60/1 each-way Coral)
John Deere Classic – Boo Weekley to win (90/1 each-way Stan James)
John Deere Classic – Ryan Moore to win (28/1 each-way 888 Sport)
Place a win or each way bet on the John Deere Classic before it starts and you’ll get a £5 Free Bet to use in-play.