LOOKING for some Wimbledon bets? Mark Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) has three for Day 3 of Wimbledon.
Matthew Ebden v John Isner | Wednesday 13:00 | BBCi
This is a stats bet but if we delve a little deeper there looks to be some reasoning behind it. In 14 of John Isner’s last 18 matches there have been over 10.5 games in the 1st set (78%) and there seems little reason to oppose it again on grass.
Isner pummelled down 38 aces in his straight sets 1st round win, conceding just one break point opportunity which he duly saved. I think it’s safe to say he’s serving well.
Obviously this bet relies on his opponent serving/playing well too and I think we can go as far to say Matthew Ebden is. He’s won 12 of his 14 grass court matches this year (albeit the majority on the Challenger tour), however, they still need winning. He won the Surbiton tournament and finished runner-up in Ilkley, so he should be confident.
He held every service game in his straight sets 1st round win and conceded no break points. John Isner isn’t the daunting challenge here some might think, he’s made the 3rd round just once, and I think Ebden can potentially keep things close in the opener.
For a bit more value, let’s also back Isner to prevail 7-5 or 7-6 at 9/4. In those 14 matches that went overs in the 1st set, 11 of them Isner took by this scoreline (61%).
Daniela Hantuchova v Heather Watson | Wednesday 15:00 | BBCi
Daniela Hantuchova comes into this 2nd round match with Brit Heather Watson as slight favourite and I would be inclined to agree there shouldn’t be a lot in the prices.
Hantuchova is 15-13 for the year (54%) and Watson is 18-16 (53%), with Daniela winning four of her six grass court matches (67%) and Heather three of her five (60%). I think this will be a tight match.
Watson has regularly talked of trying to play more aggressive than her natural counter-puncher style, indeed that was one of the elements she mentioned after defeating Caroline Garcia, but with this naturally more errors will come, especially against a instinctive grass courter (who herself is prone to streaky tennis), and I think we’ll see a topsy turvy match with plenty of changes in momentum.
Four of Hantuchova’s six grass matches have seen over 21.5 games and three of Heather’s five. Indeed if we go further back, six of Daniela’s last eight here have been over and there were 27 games in Watson’s match against Angelique Kerber at this stage last year. Further more, their one and only meeting at the Australian Open last year produced 30 games.
Sloane Stephens v Lauren Davis | Wednesday 16:30 | BBCi
This is another stats related bet which looks good on paper. Eight of Sloane’s 12 matches at Wimbledon have featured over 20.5 games and six of Lauren Davis’ eight grass court matches this year have too, as well as both her 3rd and 2nd round matches here last year. Essentially I’m saying that Stephens is perhaps a little short at 2/9 hence the potentially low line.
Indeed Sloane was knocked out here at the same price last year in the 1st round and Lauren Davis leads their head-to-head 2-1, including victory in Auckland this year.
In fact all three of those matches have featured three sets, meaning the total games has read 24, 31 and 29. Even a straight sets victory for either player featuring a tight set would be good enough for this line, something akin to 7-5 6-3.
Matthew Ebden v John Isner – Over 10.5 Set 1 Total Games (17/20 Betfair)
Matthew Ebden v John Isner – Isner to win the 1st Set 7-6 or 7-5 (9/4 Skybet)
Sloane Stephens v Lauren Davis – Over 20.5 Games (Evens Betfred)
Daniela Hantuchova v Heather Watson – Over 21.5 Games (5/6 Ladbrokes)