MARK Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) has two bets to share in Sunday’s French Open final.
Novak Djokovic v Stan Wawrinka | Sunday 14:00 | ITV4
Novak Djokovic and Stanilas Wawrinka come into this final both having dropped just two sets in what’s set to be a highly competitive final. Djokovic has beaten Andy Murray in five and Rafael Nadal along the way, Wawrinka has taken down Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in four and Roger Federer.
These two have faced each other 23 times with Djokovic holding a 20-3 lead, 5-0 on the clay, with Stan winning just one of the last 18 at the Australian Open last year.
Below are the tournament statistics of both players:
Aces: Novak 28 Stan 53
Double Faults: Novak 4 Stan 24
1st Serve %: Novak 71% Stan 50%
1st Serve Points Won: Novak 75% Stan 80%
2nd Serve Points Won: Novak 65% Stan 57%
1st Serve Receiving Points Won: Novak 124 Stan 132
2nd Serve Receiving Points Won: Novak 137 Stan 138
Breaks of Serve: Novak 36 Stan 29
Break Points Converted: Novak 36/94 (38%) Stan 29/85 (34%)
What do these tell us? Well Stan has picked up a lot of free points on his serve hitting twice as many aces as Novak. 53 aces is the equivalent of winning two sets. However, you can see that when the 1st serve doesn’t work (a big 50% of the time), he is prone to a double fault, hitting six times as many as Novak.
Djokovic’s serve has been immaculate, hitting a high % of 1st serves and successfully defending his 2nd serve when necessary. Both of them however, haven’t been great on break points. Creating a similar number of opportunities but only taking just over a 1/3 of them.
Djokovic is seen as the best returner in the game but I think he’s taken a bit off his return, going for an efficient return rather than a winner. This might have something to do with how he grinds his opponents down, with them exerting more energy attempting to save the break points. To put those numbers in perspective, Murray converted 54% of his break points (38/70), taking his opportunities much more clinically.
Looking back at their five meetings over five sets, all of them have gone the distance. At this year’s Australian Open Novak bagelled Stan in the final set, last year Stan won 9-7. In 2013 there were two epics, one at the US with Novak prevailing 6-4 and again in Australia 12-10. Finally a Davis Cup match all the way back in 2006 also went the distance with Djokovic winning the 5th 6-4.
Clearly Stan has the ability to cause Novak trouble and Over 3.5 sets at 11/10 (Paddy Power) looks a great bet to me. 11 of the last 16 French Open finals have had at least four sets (69%).
Djokovic 3-1 looks a bit skinny at 11/4 but those of you who fancy a repeat of Novak’s semi and the fact all five previous best of five meetings have gone the distance, 3-2 Djokovic looks nice price at 8/1.
Novak Djokovic v Stan Wawrinka – Over 3.5 Sets (11/10 Paddy Power)
Novak Djokovic v Stan Wawrinka – Djokovic to win 3-2 (8/1 William Hill)