French Open Tips | 29th May 2015

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TWO big prices for Mark Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) at Roland Garros on Friday. Take a look.

Ana Ivanovic v Donna Vekic | Friday 10:00

If there was a market available for most error strewn match, this would certainly be a contender!

2/9 Ivanovic comes into this having battled back from a set down in both of her matches so far. Watching her against Misaki Doi she was playing a lot of high % tennis, going for far too many shots.

She served 10 aces and hit 39 winners but this was negated by her poor return of making just 52% of her 1st serves, throwing in six double faults, 37 unforced errors and converting only five of her 21 break point chances (24%).

She also made things difficult for herself by failing to serve out the match at 5-2. It was a similar story against Yaroslava Shvedova in round one hitting five aces and 28 winners but there were five doubles and 26 UE’s to go alongside it.

I mentioned in the outright preview Ana has had a poor year, she’s just 14-9, and hasn’t made it past the 3rd round in her last five tournaments.

18 year-old Donna Vekic burst onto the scene in 2012 making her first WTA tour final in her opening WTA tournament. In 2013 she again made the final of Birmingham before winning her first title last year in Malaysia defeating Dominika Cibulkova in the final.

She’s a talented player but is still very up-and-down. She’s just 11-14 for this year and has even dropped down to playing a couple of ITF tournaments.

However, her French Open has began very well beating 31st seed Caroline Garcia in three sets in the 1st round and then following it up with a straight sets win against Bojana Jovanovski.

She herself has posted some erratic numbers as well though, against Garcia she served 13 aces, won 72% of points on her 1st serve and hit 29 winners.

However, she also threw in nine double faults and 34 unforced errors. Jovanovski was a similar story, making just 48% of her 1st serves, serving 10 doubles and hitting 30 unforced errors. Conversely when she made her 1st serve she was a threat winning 93% of her points on it and hitting 17 winners. This still led to a 6-4 6-3 victory.

With five of Ivanovic’s seven matches on clay this year going the distance, a topsy-turvy match looks on the cards and that looks the bet here at a nice price.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Pablo Andujar | Friday 15:00

For my second bet, I’m keen to test out Tsonga’s fitness and form since returning from injury against a tough clay-courter in Pablo Andujar. Tsonga injured his arm last November in the Davis Cup Final and postponed his return various times this year before playing in Miami at the back end of March.

Since returning he’s played five tournaments, four on clay, never going beyond the 3rd round, suffering defeats as big favourite to Marcel Granollers, David Goffin and Marin Cilic.

His latest defeat to Goffin in Rome would be of particular concern having served for the match, made match point, got broken, then after having two match points on Goffin’s serve, somehow lost. Overall he hit 53 unforced errors.

He’s comfortably made his way through the opening rounds although against opponents you wouldn’t expect to cause him trouble. This isn’t Tsonga’s favoured surface either winning just 59% of matches in-comparison to 73% across other surfaces.

Andujar’s had some decent results on clay this year, he made the final of Barcelona beating David Ferrer, Fabio Fognini and Feliciano Lopez all in straight sets. He showed some good mental fortitude to oust Philipp Kohlschreiber in the last round putting the disappointment of conceding a two set lead and then going a break down in the final set.

There were early exits in Madrid and Geneva but they were of no disgrace losing to Jack Sock who’s put Grigor Dimitrov out and won Houston, and Joao Sousa who pushed Murray at times yesterday and went on to make the Geneva final respectively.

Best Bets

Ana Ivanovic v Donna Vekic – Total sets 3 (5/2 Betway)

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Pablo Andujar – Pablo Andujar to win (11/4 Bet365)

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Mark eats, sleeps and breathes football. As soon as he was old enough to bet he was figuring out ways to make his encyclopaedic knowledge of the beautiful game pay. With a degree in computer programming and three years industry experience trading for a major firm, Mark's meticulous approach leaves no stone unturned in the quest for winners. When not gambling, Mark enjoys playing football for his local side and following Liverpool around the country.

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