HAVING recommended another European NAP winner last time out in Serie A, Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) is back on the peninsula chasing goals this Sunday.
Atalanta v Empoli | Sunday 11.30 | ESPN
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – don’t believe the stereotype of Italian football. It’s not as defensive and dull as you or the bookies might think; in fact, it’s a profitable league for goal-hungry punters like myself.
Did you know, 53% of Serie A games this season have featured Both Teams To Score winners? Did you know, 45% of fixtures have produced Over 2.5 Goals? The Premier League are currently showing a 50% success rate for BTTS bets and 49% in the Over 2.5 Goals market; see, there’s not a huge difference!
So I’m keen to explore the Both Teams To Score options again this Sunday and it’s the early kick-off between Atalanta and Empoli that stands out. William Hill have made the BTTS bet a 19/20 chance and I’m inclined to think this selection should be much closer to 4/7.
Atalanta survived the suspension and injuries to four defenders to deservedly pick up a point at Roma last weekend whilst Empoli were involved in an entertaining 2-2 draw with basement battlers Parma. Both sides are yet to solidify their Serie A status but nevertheless, an open attacking game should be in store.
Hosts La Dea have returned W1-D4-L1 figures in their six matches under former Lazio boss Edy Reja but with nine of their past 11 games and 10 of their previous 11 at their Stadio Atleti Azzurri d’Italia base in Bergamo featuring BTTS, it’s a good starting point for our Both Teams To Score selection.
Empoli have suffered just four defeats in 21 now but remain profitable on the road in the BTTS market, with 9/15 (60%) road trips producing goals at both ends as the Azzurri have failed to notch in only five of their away days and three of those matches came at top-five clubs.
Neither side look capable of closing a game out, preferring to play on the front foot under their attack-minded bosses. And so with that in mind, a Both Teams To Score bet at almost even-money looks the smart play on Sunday morning.
Taking both teams’ BTTS win rate in their home/away fixtures (67% and 60%), we should be expecting around a 63.5% chance of a repeat on Sunday. If we put that percentage into odds, it would be closer to 4/7 than William Hill’s 19/20. Big value.
Atalanta v Empoli – Both Teams To Score (19/20 William Hill)
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