SERIE A takes centre-stage as Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) shares his favourite bet from the continent this weekend.
Lazio v Napoli | Sunday 11.30 | BT Sport 1
It was a goal-filled weekend in Serie A last time out with nine of the 10 fixtures all proving profitable for punters chasing Both Teams To Score winners. And we’re hopeful the goals will continue to flow this coming weekend, especially in Lazio’s showdown with Napoli.
Lazio surrendered a 2-0 advantage in the derby against Roma last Sunday but they come into this clash at the Stadio Olimpico with a one-point cushion over Napoli. And having taken 18 points from a possible 24 on home soil, will fancy their chances to extend that lead.
But I’m chasing a goals-bet and with Over 2.5 Goals chalked up 11/10 with William Hill, I’m happy to take the plunge. It’s a proved a winning selection in 11 of the last 14 Lazio matches and in seven of their eight games in the capital. Yeah, they’re bloody strong trends and an odds-against price.
Going back to the start of last season, we can see Lazio have scored in 21/27 (78%) of home league matches and netted two or more goals in 17/27 (63%). Their Over 2.5 Goals record also remains strong with 15/27 (56%) breaking the three-goal barrier.
Napoli lost 3-1 at home to table-topping Juventus last time out but there’s no doubt about the attacking threat that Rafa Benitez’s side hold. They’ve only failed to notch once since September but have also kept only four clean sheets in 2014/15.
Looking back over that sample from the beginning of 2013/14, we can also see Napoli have kept just 7/28 (25%) clean sheets when playing away but have also managed to score 21/28 (75%) of their Serie A road trips.
Their Over 2.5 Goals figure is slightly below 50% with 13/28 (46%) banking but with the majority of trends in our favour and two attack-minded sets of players on show, we should have the potential for a goal-heavy game in Rome on Sunday.
Lazio v Napoli – Over 2.5 Goals (11/10 William Hill)