THE most romantic tie of the FA Cup Third Round pits together AFC Wimbledon and Liverpool. Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) takes a look at the odds.
AFC Wimbledon v Liverpool | Monday 19:55 | BBC1
Nostalgists will love this tie on BBC1 on Monday night. It brings together Liverpool with the reformed representation of the Wimbledon side they lost to in the 1988 FA Cup Final.
It’s been a weekend of the top sides finding it hard to break down the lesser teams in the FA Cup and that has to be taken into consideration here. AFC Wimbledon sit 12th in League Two five points off the play-offs and 11 clear of the relegation zone. How big a game do you reckon this is for them? I’d say pretty massive.
This season Liverpool have played Real Madrid twice, dropped to the bottom half of the table, reached the League Cup semi-final and are seven points off a Champions League spot. How big a game do you reckon this is for them? I’d say fairly small.
A place in the top four is surely far more valuable than a long Cup run for Liverpool? They’re already in the last four of the League Cup and after last season’s league performance they’ll be aware how the lack of a busy programme can help in the long run. I suppose what I’m trying to say is, I don’t expect Liverpool to be at full strength physically or mentally in this match.
AFC Wimbledon are in good form just now with six wins in their last nine matches. They knocked League Two leaders Wycombe out of this competition in the last round and just smashed up in-form Exeter 4-1 last week in the league. A mere two home defeats in the last 11 at Kingsmeadow also bodes well.
Boylesports go 13/1 on Neal Ardley’s side winning on Monday and that is huge. It’s also requires a huge leap of faith as well though. With those big odds on the League Two side, it means the handicap markets will offer big prices. I’ll plump for 888 Sports’ 11/4 on them +1 on the Asian Handicap. If they avoid defeat I get paid out, if they lose by one goal I get my stake back.
AFC Wimbledon v Liverpool – AFC Wimbledon +1 Asian Handicap (11/4 888 Sport)