NFL Tips | 30th November-2nd December 2014

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AFTER nailing a treble last week, Tom Selwyn (@tom_selwyn) is hungry for more winners.

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Sunday 18:00

This game could be pretty poor it must be said, with Giants WR Odell Beckham being the lone bright spot. Backing up my feeling that it could be poor, Under 45 points is my pick.

Given how these two offenses have been performing this season, the only thing stopping me thinking that this could be under 30 points is Jacksonville’s rookie QB Blake Bortles’ propensity to throw a lot of INTs(15 so far this season), with many going for TDs the other way.

Because of the rookie’s struggles this season, Jacksonville are averaging a league low 14.6 points a game. The Giants haven’t fared much better themselves this season, who are #20 in the league with 21.2 points a game. Giants QB Eli Manning, whilst obviously performing better than Bortles, has still thrown 12 INTs this season.

Both defences have not been great this season either, but you have to say they’ve performed better than their offenses – all signs point to a low scoring affair here.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Monday 01:30 | Channel 4

With the AFC West division on the line, this is a huge game in Kansas City this weekend. The two teams are coming into the game in completely different moods – Kansas City falling hard against the Oakland Raiders, while Denver are coming off a good win against a feisty Dolphins team. I’ll be taking the Broncos in this one.

The first reason for this choice is the lack of explosion in the Kansas City Chiefs offense. They have only 12 passing plays of 25+ yards this season and their WRs still have not yet recorded a TD all year! For comparison, the Broncos have 29 passing plays of 25+ yards and 18 TDs from their WRs this season. If this game gets into a shootout, which Denver would like to happen, I can’t see a way for the Chiefs to keep up.

The Chiefs rely on RB Jamaal Charles for a lot of their offense and he has a bad matchup this week, as he’s going against a Broncos defence that is ranked #2 against the run this season, allowing only 75.5 yards a game on the ground.

I also don’t like their OL, who were given a torrid time by the Raiders’ various twists and stunts, against Denver’s pass rush – Denver has better players than Oakland and should have the same success. Throw in that Denver QB Peyton Manning is 5-0 versus the Chiefs and 10-1 against them lifetime, this all points to a Denver win.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets | Tuesday 01:30 | Eurosport

Given the current form of the respective teams, this match should only really go one way. Throw in the fact that the Dolphins will be desperate for a win and the Jets season is over, I’m heading Dolphins -7 here.

Continuing their QB carousel, the Jets are heading back to Geno Smith in this one and he’s going against a very good Dolphins D, which is ranked #5 in overall defence. Smith has posted 10 INTs in limited starts this season and I can see him throwing a few more to the Dolphins in this one. Miami is also tied for #4 in sacks this season – look for them to post a fair few in this one too.

The Jets are struggling defensively too and will be without their best player – DE Muhammad Wilkerson – in this one, which will help the Miami running game. Against the pass, the Jets allow the opposing QB to post the highest QB rating in the league. Given the way Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has been playing of late, this looks set to continue.

A lot of the prime time games this season have been very one-sided. I can see this one going the same way in favour of the Dolphins.

Best Bets

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Under 45 Points (10/11 Sportingbet)

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs – Denver Broncos To Win (10/11 Coral)

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets – Miami Dolphins -7 (21/20 Paddy Power)

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Tom got into betting after taking a marketing role at Sportingbet in 2009. He's since moved on to IT, but has remained within the industry. His passion in both betting and watching is the NFL, but also follows many other sports. Other interests include rock music, following the Patriots and being confused as to which Nottingham Forest team will show up each week.

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