OUT of all the live Premier League games this weekend, Mark Stinchcombe was keen to cover this one. Let’s hope he’s got it nailed.
Everton v QPR | Monday 20:00 | Sky Sports 1
QPR go into this game without their suspended top scorer Charlie Austin. Austin is a huge miss for the away side having scored 50% of their goals this season (8 of 16) – the highest contribution in the league, including both of just the two goals scored in their seven away games. Rangers have lost all seven of those games, conceding the most away goals in the process, 17, at an average of 2.43 per-game.
Everton have under performed so far this season. After finishing 5th last season and qualifying for Europe, they currently sit 13th. With the extra games, it’s ultimately the Europa League with it’s hectic Thursday – Sunday schedule, that has been part of their downfall.
In the five games after a European match, they’ve lost three of them, winning just one. Coupled with being the side making the most errors leading directly to goals in the league (8), it’s easy to see why they sit below the top half.
Despite only two home wins, they’ve still scored 13 goals at Goodison Park (1.86pg), more than Manchester City, and have impressively beaten Wolfsburg and Lille in the Europa League 4-1 and 3-0 respectively. We can ignore the 1-0 defeat to Krasnodar on Thursday with Roberto Martinez selecting a reserve/U21 side with their group winner status already secured. This game gives the first choice players a nine day break since their narrow defeat at Man City.
With Harry Redknapp suffering a 4-0 FA Cup defeat here in January and a 2-0 loss last year in his two visits as QPR boss, the Asian line of Everton -1.0 at 4/5 with BetVictor looks very tempting especially with no Austin. An Everton win of two goals or more sees the bet win, a one-goal victory sees us get our money back.
With QPR conceding the most goals in the league going into this weekend’s set of fixtures, and their ability to concede at an alarming rate on the road, it makes sense to look for some value on an Everton goalscorer. This defensive frailty isn’t helped with Rangers allowing the opposition the most shots-on-target against them in the league (86).
The home side like to share their goals around, Romelu Lukaku is top scorer with six, but six other players have registered at least two goals or more. One of those players who seems to enjoy playing at Goodison Park is Seamus Coleman. In his last 21 home games, Coleman has scored 8 goals, including against tonight’s opponents in their 4-0 drubbing earlier this year. Coral offer 7/1 the attacking full-back finds the net again which looks very good to me.