MARK Stinchcombe (@MarkStinchcombe) returns with more high-quality views on the Super Sunday clash between Southampton and Manchester City.
Southampton v Manchester City | Sunday 13.30 | Sky Sports 1
We’ve profited twice on this column opposing Manchester City, with both Charlie Austin and Diafra Sakho breaching their backline. The great thing about betting though is when a side gets overrated in the market we can oppose them, and when a side gets underrated we can find a way to get with them. I believe we have a classic case of both situations in this matchup.
Southampton have made a fantastic start to the season. Eight wins out of 12, 24 goals scored and only six conceded puts them second in the table. Clearly those that thought they would struggle after their summer exodus were very wrong.
However, delve a little further and I don’t think they’ve had the hardest of starts. Nine of their matches have come against teams currently 10th and below. Victories against Newcastle and West Ham (5h and 6th respectively, anyone?) came at a period when both sides were in somewhat disarray with their managers heavy favourites to be sacked next (there was no Enner Valencia, Diafro Sakho nor Alex Song in the starting XI for West Ham).
Southampton deserve credit for what they’ve done so far but I think they’re carrying on where they left last season – being the best of the rest.
City on the other hand, the Premier League champions, have made a bit of an underwhelming start to the season and trail leaders Chelsea by eight points. However, they are only one place and two points behind Southampton despite having played all but one of the top eight (Southampton).
In terms of quality, I don’t think a lot of has changed between the two sides from last season. Southampton have obviously had a lot of players come and go but it’s very much like-for-like. Graziano Pelle for Rickie Lambert, Dusan Tadic for Adam Lallana, Toby Alderweireld for Dejan Lovren, Ryan Bertrand for Luke Shaw.
Therefore I don’t see why City have gone from odds-on-favourites here last season to almost 6/4. For me this supremacy move is far too big and is up to us to take advantage.
One man who just seems to get better and better every week is Sergio Aguero. It’s 12 goals in 12 games in the league, 17 in 17 games in all competitions, including a hat-trick against Bayern Munich.
Overall it’s 64 Premier League goals in 99 games. He’s accounted for 50% of City’s goals in the league this season and averages a whopping 5.3 shots-per-game. Betfair are offering a huge 13/8 on him scoring anytime which deserves to be taken advantage of when you consider he was just evens (1/1) when scoring in this corresponding fixture last season.
For those looking to capitalise further, get involved with William Hill‘s 9/2 on Sergio opening the scoring (money back as a free bet if second). In his 14 starts in all competitions he’s scored first seven times (50%) aswell as scoring next both times when coming on as sub against Liverpool and Newcastle.
Southampton v Man City – Sergio Aguero to score at anytime (13/8 Betfair)
Southampton v Man City – Sergio Aguero to score first (9/2 William Hill)