WE’RE delighted to introduce Mark Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) to the WeLoveBetting stable. Mark will be focussing on the live Premier League matches for us, starting with Manchester City’s trip to West Ham.
West Ham v Manchester City | Saturday 12.45 | BT Sport 1
Given West Ham sit in a Champions League spot, above the likes of Man Utd and Liverpool, after eight games, some would be forgiven for wondering why Man City are just 4/7 to win this match. However, closer inspection shows us three of the Hammers’ four victories have come against the bottom-five and in four meetings with City last season, the Citizens won all four by an aggregate score 14-1! So perhaps the Match Prices are about right.
There’s no doubt West Ham’s transformation this season is down to their new found attacking prowess. With the signings of Enner Valencia, Diafra Sakho and Mauro Zarate they’re a completely different side going forward. They’ve gone from the third worst side for shots-per-game (11.1) to the sixth best (14.4). This is reflected in their goals scored – the Hammers only managing 40 last season (1.05 goals-per-game) yet they’ve already bagged 15 (1.87 goals-per-game) this campaign. With City only keeping three clean sheets in their 13 games (one v Sheffield Wednesday), I think we’re good for a West Ham goal.
Despite their ability going forward, the core of their backline that shipped 14 goals against City last season remain. They’ve added Aaron Creswell and Carl Jenkinson at full-back but these are very much attacked-minded players who will leave space in behind for City to exploit. City won 3-1 and 3-0 here in 2013/14 and with Sergio Aguero in red-hot form and no team earning more points away from home than the Sky Blues, I can’t see past an away win. But throw in Both Teams Scoring and the 4/7 becomes a very backable 2/1 (William Hill).
Before his move to Upton Park, Diafra Sakho scored 39 goals in 70 games in the French second division for Metz and has continued in the same vein since joining the Hammers. He’s scored in all five starts wearing the claret and blue, averaging 3.2 shots-per-game and given City’s aforementioned defensive frailties, 10/3 (Betfair) on Sakho scoring anytime looks value to me.
West Ham v Manchester City – Manchester City to win and Both Teams To Score (2/1 William Hill)
West Ham v Manchester City – Diafra Sakho to score anytime (10/3 Betfair)