THE Premier League is back after the international break and Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) gave us his three best bets from the coupon.
Everton v Aston Villa | Saturday 15:00
As most of you know I’m always looking to find a way to oppose Aston Villa. I still think they’ll be in the relegation soup come the end of the season. This weekend though I think the bookmakers are underestimating them as they visit Goodison Park.
Everton are a best price 6/10 with William Hill to win this fixture and that’s mighty short. The Merseysiders are 17th in the table having shipped a league high 16 goals this campaign. There’s no doubt Everton will be climbing higher up that table very soon, but do you really want to be taken those kind of prices on a side who failed to beat Leicester and lost at home to Crystal Palace? Nah, not for me.
Obviously I can’t back Aston Villa at 11/2 with Bet365, but I did toy with the idea of getting with them +1 on the Asian Handicap at 10/11 with BetVictor. After grasping with it for a while I decided that Under 2.5 Goals was the route I would take. Yeah, I get that Everton are leaking goals left, right and centre, but quite simply Aston Villa will not be able to take advantage of that. Paul Lambert’s side have scored a pathetic four goals in the league this season and far more respectably conceded nine. 4 of their 7 games this season have gone Under 2.5 and I expect a similar outcome here with a narrow Everton win unfolding. Under 2.5 Goals is 11/10 with Paddy Power.
Southampton v Sunderland | Saturday 15:00
I can’t be having that Southampton are the best thing since sliced bread. Their defeat to Spurs didn’t really surprise me as the fixture list had been very kind to them before that, with no sides in last season’s Top 9 amongst their victims. Bookmakers are still pricing them up too short and at 8/13 against Sunderland they’ve done it again.
Sunderland are a side I like, despite their reluctance to win football games this season. They’ve lost half the number of games that Southampton have, and have got draws against Manchester United and the aforementioned Spurs. Their convincing 3-1 win last time out against Stoke may just have set them onto the right path and they make start to take up permanent residence in mid-table now.
I’m not suggesting they’ll win here, but what I am saying is that Southampton won’t find it easy. They failed to beat West Brom at home early in the campaign and I think Sunderland represent a stiffer test. BetVictor are offering 9/10 on Sunderland with a goal start in the Asian Handicap and that suits me. If the Mackems lose by the odd goal then I’ll get my money back. I think they’re more than capable of keeping this tight with just seven goals conceded so far this season.
Stoke v Swansea | Sunday 16:00 | Sky Sports 1
Everyone loves Swansea don’t they? Well, bookmakers certainly do, as like Southampton they’re short every week. Garry Monk’s side haven’t won in the league since August yet are short as 15/8 with Coral to win here. They failed to beat the bottom side Newcastle despite everyone cooing over their odds and the sides they beat are Burnley, West Brom and an opening day of the season car crash of a Man Utd side.
Stoke owe me one. I backed them at home to Villa on opening day and again at home to Leicester and was let down both times. But make no mistake I’m going in again as the odds are just too big. Stoke got that home win monkey off their back with a Britannia win over Newcastle two weeks ago and I think they’ll kick on from that here. Is it worth reminding you again that they finished way up in 6th on the Home Table last season? I’ll do it anyway!
It’s 31/20 with BetVictor for another Stoke home win here and I’m getting tucked into that without any doubt.
Everton v Aston Villa – Under 2.5 Goals (11/10 Paddy Power)
Southampton v Sunderland – Sunderland +1 Asian Handicap (9/10 BetVictor)
Stoke v Swansea – Stoke to win (31/20 BetVictor)