Darts guru Ben Levene (@benlevene96) looks ahead to day three of the 2018 World Matchplay from Winter Gardens.
Kim Huybrechts v John Henderson | Monday 23rd July 2018, 19:00 | Sky Sports
Monday’s action begins with a clash between a pair who have terrible records at the Matchplay.
John Henderson has gone out in the opening round at Winter Gardens in his last two appearances, while Kim Huybrechts has been dismissed in the last 32 seven consecutive times.
If this wasn’t a TV event, I’d be all over Henderson at the prices. The pair both average in the 91 region on stage this year, and the Highlander boasts the superior floor average.
He beat Michael Van Gerwen and Raymond Van Barneveld en-route the semi-final at the Grand Prix and disposed of Daryl Gurney at the World’s. He’s won nine of 12 meetings with Huybrechts too.
However, this is a race to ten legs in a baking venue, and that makes John Henderson a liability. In his four matches at the World Matchplay he’s averaged 91, 86, 81, and most recently 86.
If we look at his nine PDC leg play matches over a longer format (at least the best of 17) where data is available, he’s averaged below 92 in eight, averaging under 90 in all five in the last 36 months. He has a poor record in this format.
Kim Huybrechts has averaged 91, 92, 95, 97, and most recently 94 in his Matchplay exits. If he brings that game, then he can break his Blackpool curse.
But there is a chance the old demons will play on his mind.
It’s 8/1 that Henderson is leading after six legs, but Huybrechts goes on to win the match. That’s worth a dart.
The main worry over Henderson is sustaining his game over the period, while for Huybrechts a shaky start is possible.
Henderson has the better 180 rate both on stage and the floor. Huybrechts has hit just four maximums’ in his last 37 matches on stage. He’s also a serial switcher.
It’s 9/2 Huybrechts wins with Henderson hitting the most 180’s. That’s far too big.
Peter Wright v Jelle Klaasen | Monday 23rd July 2018, 22:00 | Sky Sports
Peter Wright is the highest-ranked player remaining in the tournament but has looked out of sorts of late.
However, Snakebite meets a Jelle Klaasen he has won 11 consecutive matches against. Five of those wins have come since the start of 2017.
Klaasen has experienced a terrible demise and is lacking consistency. He still has the ability to put a string of legs together, but over the format it’s difficult to see anything other than a Wright win.
Klaasen has averaged below 90 on both the floor and stage in 2018. He’s gone out in the first round in Blackpool in three consecutive years.
The handicap line is set at -3.5 and the 10/11 about that can be chanced.
Bet Victor have Klaasen’s average spread at 92.5. Like has already been mentioned, he’s playing at a level below that this year, and I see no reason for that to change.
Of the eight players to play on Saturday evening, seven of the eight produced an average below their stage average so far this year.
Best Bets
Kim Huybrechts v John Henderson – Henderson after six legs – Huybrechts to win the match (8/1 Bet365)
Kim Huybrechts v John Henderson – Huybrechts to win & Henderson to hit the most 180's (9/2 Sky Bet)
Peter Wright v Jelle Klaasen – Wright -3.5 legs (10/11 Bet365)
Peter Wright v Jelle Klaasen – Klaasen under 92.5 average (5/6 Bet Victor)
