WORLD football fanatic James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) continues his quest for global value with a selection of hand-picked best bets from across the planet on Saturday.
1860 Munich v Duisburg | Saturday 31st October 2020, 13:00
We all hear about the Bundesliga in Germany and also the second-tier, 2. Bundesliga, but perhaps there isn’t as much focus on 3. Liga as there should be. After all, you have plenty of established clubs such as Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock, as well as 1860 Munich, who are in action this weekend at home to Duisburg.
1860 are now starting their third consecutive campaign at this level and gradually improved from 12th to 8th from first season to second. Seven games into the third and they proudly sit top of the table, and the 1965/66 Bundesliga winners are very much intent on moving up the leagues once again. A big part of their early success in 2020/21 is the form of their striker and captain Sascha Mölders, who already has four goals to his name.
Michael Köllner’s side have been especially devastating in attacking situations this season and they’re very much producing wave after wave of attacks which opponents are ultimately struggling to cope with.
The numbers firmly back this up as 1860 are top of the pile in relation to shots on goal, with them being just one of two clubs to have had over 100 shots at this stage. They actually lost their previous home game against third in the table Saarbrucken, so they’ll be eager to please their fans watching from home.
They should have every chance of doing exactly that as they’re coming up against a Duisburg outfit who are proving to be the complete opposite to 1860 in relation to attacking threat. There couldn’t really be a bigger gap between the two clubs in that regard. Duisburg are rock bottom in relation to shots on goal, second-bottom for efforts on target, last in terms of opposition penalty box entries and also final third entries.
In their defence, they have played two games fewer than most clubs on a count of having matches postponed. Nevertheless, Hansa Rostock are the only team of note they’ve faced so far and lost 3-1, so to me they face an uphill battle at Grünwalder Stadion.
Duisburg actually won their last away game, but that remains one of just three away league victories for them in the calendar year. They don’t fare especially well when they travel to Munich either as 1997 would be the last time they’ve defeated 1860 Munich on the road.
1860 are unbeaten in their last 13 at home to Duisburg in all competitions. 1860 have already smashed Lubeck 4-1 at home this season, who are another club currently in the relegation zone alongside Duisburg.
We have to get the home team on side, and whilst it was slightly harsh of me to highlight Duisburg’s poor season numbers given they’ve played a few games fewer than everyone, my selection of 1860 Munich -1.25 at 13/10 (888) on the Asian Handicap mainly revolves around how the home team are likely to play here.
I just think they could quite feasibly blow Duisburg out of the water. My slight concern is they may not keep a clean sheet, but I expect them to score two or three at the very least.
Belenenses v Farense | Saturday 31st October 2020, 15:30
Another Saturday selection sees us make a triumphant return to Portugal as the Primeira Liga is very much back in full swing. Nothing much has changed here folks as five games into the new campaign as we already have a top four of Benfica, Sporting CP, Porto and Braga firmly in place. They will remain here for the remainder of the campaign, although the order is of course to be decided.
We won’t really be focusing on the top of the table this weekend as our focus comes in the form of Belenenses at home to Farense. Sure, it probably isn’t the type of game that would naturally and instantly catch the eye, but that is the very reason why I believe we can make a cheeky profit on this encounter.
All of the attention on football in this country revolves around the four clubs I mentioned before, or ultimately whoever they are playing against. I imagine betting activity worldwide on this league is focusing on these matches too, so Belenenses against Farense is probably a clash which won’t have been the top of the pile for the bookmakers when compiling odds.
Belenenses are now in their eighth successive season in the top flight and apart from a brilliant 6th place finish in 2014/15, they’ve been floating around the 9th to 15th mark. Only just narrowly missing out on relegation last season was a stark reminder that they need to get their act back together, but five games into this campaign they are once again floating around the bottom of the table.
They’re currently the lowest scorers with only two goals. Sure, they’ve only shipped four, but you suspect is they’re playing for 1-0s but they are generally too defensive in their intention of keeping a clean sheet, and then in turn they struggle in attack.
This is highlighted by the fact they are ranked rock bottom for shots on goal, and are the only side to achieve below 40 efforts on goal. Considering that is across five games suggests how much they’re struggled, and only one of those games came against one of the bigger clubs, when losing to Benfica last time out. They sit third-bottom for opposition box entries and also for possession, so it just proves they like to sit back and keep things tight, but it ultimately leads to pressure.
They are coming up against a Farense side this weekend who actually sit rock bottom of the pile. Four of their five have resulted in defeat, but that did include a close 3-2 away setback to Benfica, whereas they dominated Rio Ave in their last match and lost 1-0 after conceding early. Whilst they’re conceding goals, 10 in total, the fact they come up against a shot-shy Belenenses this weekend shouldn’t really have them shacking with fear.
Farense are a newly-promoted side, so it perhaps isn’t a shock for them to be near the bottom. They have however been having a go in their games and I feel as though that could serve them well on Saturday afternoon.
They are actually ranked 6th in the league for shots on goal, and fourth when we consider shots on target. They’re only conceding an average of 10.8 shots on goal per game from opponents, a number which is better than that of Porto and is ranked the 5th best. I just think they’ve been a little unlucky this season and haven’t received the rewards they deserve.
I think they are a very interesting proposition this weekend, but finding the appropriate angle to back them wasn’t straightforward. In the end, I’ve plumped for Farense To Score First at 6/5 (Bet365) as I can just picture this being the sort of game where Belenenses will view this as being a much easier game than it will actually be.
The home side aren’t exactly high on confidence, and whilst Farense are bottom I think they’ll be encouraged by their performance levels, plus they know how key scoring first will be if they’re to gain a positive outcome.
Best Bets
1860 Munich v Duisburg – 1860 Munich -1.25 Asian Handicap (13/10 888)
Belenenses v Farense – Farense To Score First (6/5 Bet365)
