SELECTABET (@selectabet) returns with another case study on international football. Using trends to find the best correct score value.
There's one last hurrah for the football season this weekend as World Cup Qualifying takes centre stage and as ever I'm looking for an international correct score treble to finish the season in style.
Those of you who follow me on these type of bets will know my modus operandi by now and it's pretty simple; find some mismatched fixtures and back the favourites to win by a correct score ‘to nil'.
This round of fixtures has thrown up quite a few options so let's pick our way through them.
Andorra v Hungary | Friday 19:45 | Sky Sports Red Button
First to catch my eye is Hungary's visit to the tiny nation of Andorra and all going well the Magyars should win ‘to nil'.
Last time out I predicted a 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0 win for the Hungarians and they duly obliged with a four-goal haul. I think it might be a little closer on Friday.
The Andorrans score just over 1 goal per year, yes per-year! Since 1998 they've netted 24 times in competitive matches, six of which have been penalties and their only goal in this campaign so far was a 91st minute consolation against Switzerland.
They are however, a better side at home than away. They've conceded just three in three matches at the picturesque Estadio Nacional (1-2 Switzerland, 0-1 Latvia, 0-0 Faroe Islands) so don't expect Hungary to run up a cricket score.
Cover a 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 win for Hungary.
Germany v San Marino | Saturday 19:45 | Sky Sports 1
Whilst this fixture looks easy to call it's probably one of the hardest, purely because it could be ANY score, it's is as big a mismatch as professional football can throw up.
When the sides met earlier in the campaign Germany won 8-0 in San Marino (I predicted 6-0, 7-0 or 8-0) and it should be a similar scenario at the Frankenstadion on Saturday.
A quick recap on San Marino; they score once every six matches. They concede at a rate of over 6.00 goals per-game against Europe's leading nations (Belgium, England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain). That means any prediction on the correct score needs to start north of 6-0.
Germany's record in this match reads W3-D0-L0-F27-A0, averaging at a score of 9-0. While I'm normally happy to play the percentages I'm keener to pitch a bit lower than this.
Recent similar fixtures for Germany at home have seen them win 4-0 v Gibraltar, 3-0 v Faroes, 3-0 v Malta and 4-0 v Liechtenstein so it may not be the goals fest we expect. With that in mind I'm going for a spread of 6-0, 7-0 or 8-0 once again.
Italy v Liechtenstein | Sunday 19:45 | Sky Sports Red Button
The Italians cost us a tasty treble in the corresponding fixtures last year. I had predicted a 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 win for them in the principality of Liechtenstein but they raced in to four-goal lead before half-time (it finished 4-0) so I'm hoping they won't let us down this time.
Liechtenstein lose on average 3.81 goals per-match – let's call it four, so that's a good place to start.
The Italians aren't renowned for racking up goals, as well as the aforementioned 4-0 win they've beaten Malta 1-0 and 2-0 as well as beating Faroe Islands 1-0. Those sides are of better quality than Liechtenstein but it's a measure of how they're sometimes happy to settle for the three points rather than go chasing goals.
That said, I still think we won't be too far away around the four-goal mark again. Lets go for 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0 to Italy.
Best Bets
Andorra v Hungary – Hungary to win 2-0, 3-0 or 4-0
Germany v San Marino – Germany to win 6-0, 7-0 or 8-0
Italy v Lichtenstein – Italy to win 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0
Bet on 3 x 3 x 3 trebles. Highest return possible is 365/1, lowest return is 173/1 at Bet365.
