BRIGHTON host Arsenal on Tuesday in the Premier League. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies.
Wolves vs Everton | Tuesday 12th January 2021, 20:15 | Sky Sports
My first instinct here was to oppose goals as Wolves games – particularly at home – generally see few of them, with just 17 in eight games this season. Additionally, the hosts are without Daniel Podence, who has been a real threat for his side both from a chance creation and goalscoring angle, while the visitors will be without Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has scored 11 league goals already this term.
Calvert-Lewin has contributed 42% of all of Everton’s top-flight goals this term and I did look at backing the home side but 6/4 is not big enough for me to get involved in the outright market, given that they’ve won just three of their eight homes league games this campaign, while Everton have lost just two from eight on their travels.
Instead, I will go for a tried and trusted method where Wolves are concerned…backing the second half to see most goals at 6/5 with Paddy Power.
This has landed in 10 of their 17 league games this term and in a game that I expect them to be in the ascendency in – without creating a great deal early on – this looks like good value to me. I may regret going for this over a couple of other fancies – I considered 1-0 Wolves and 0-0 to be the score at half time – but I think a game like this deserves a conservative strategy.
Elsewhere, I am having a crack at another bookings angle. Referee Anthony Taylor is averaging just 2.8 cards per game this term – down from 3.8 last season – but I have no idea why Nelson Semedo is 11/2 with Paddy Power to be booked.
The Portuguese has been booked in three of his last four league games and has also committed 22 fouls in 14 league games to date. No other player on the pitch has committed more fouls and given that he is likely to be up against a spiky individual in Richarlison, I see plenty of opportunities for a booking.
I did consider Richarlison at 4/1 in the same market given that he has three bookings and a red card in 12 games this term, but will keep it to just two bets this week.
Best Bets
Wolves vs Everton – Second half to the highest scoring (6/5 Paddy Power)
Wolves vs Everton – Nelson Semedo to be booked (11/2 Paddy Power)
