WOLVES welcome Burnley in Sunday's Premier League encounter. Rob Mason (@Sturdys29) delivers his betting analysis.
Wolves vs Burnley | Sunday 25th April 2021, 12:00 | BBC
After a week of turmoil in football, which could have changed the landscape forever, I’m sure we are all excited to watch Wolves versus Burnley, right?
I jest but long live our English game as we know it and the competitive nature it brings.
It might not look on paper the most exciting game of the season for neutral fans on a Sunday lunchtime, but it does hold a significant amount of importance for Burnley.
Three defeats in a row have seen the Lancashire club looking over their shoulders with six games left. The Clarets are now only six points clear of Fulham but do have a game in hand.
Wolves have now all but secured their Premier League safety after two 1-0 victories in their last two league games. The Old Gold ground out their victories against two of the bottom 3 teams in the league.
Wolves now sit on 41 points with 6 games to go. It has left Wolves with little to play for the rest of the season, with the chance of European football all but gone for next season.
Nuno’s biggest job for the rest of the season arguably looks to keep his team focused on the job at hand, rather than letting his players think about their summer holiday plans.
The odds
In the Outright markets, Wolves are 11/10 with the draw at 9/4 and Wolves to pick up all 3 points at 3/1.
My initial thoughts (considering the form of both teams during their last 3 games) were to back Wolves and take the same bet I took on my last article which also included Wolves (Wolves to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1, 15/8 with Sky Bet this time around). Every Wolves win in the league this season has been by one of the scorelines mentioned.
I have however decided against backing anything in the outright markets. To my eye, Wolves were a little fortunate to get all 3 points in a close game against Sheffield United. The Wanderers only managed to also break Fulham down in injury time.
Factoring in the importance of this game for Burnley and the points mentioned, regards to Wolves fortune recently, I will look towards other markets.
Burnley to get the shots away
During Burnley’s last 10 league games, their shots per game compared to their season average has increase by 1.7 shot’s (last 10 games 11.5 shots per game, compared to their season average of 9.8).
Wolves during the season have conceded an average of 12.6 shots per game and considering the Clarets stats, Bet365’s offer of 9/10 on Burnley having 10 shots or more looks an attractive one.
Wood to make his mark
One player I do want to get behind in the player props market is Chris Wood. The Kiwi international has increased his shooting output since return from injury at the start of March. The striker since his return his return has achieved 3,3,2,5,4 and 5 shots.
It makes it even more impressive he has also achieved these numbers against clubs including Leicester, Arsenal and Manchester United (teams that average a lower number of shots conceded per game across the season compared to Wolves).
Considering Wood has achieved 3 shots in 5 of his last 6 games I am surprised to see Boylesports offer of 13/8 to have 3 shots or more.
Longshot
For my longshot I look towards a double in the shots market this week.
We had success last week with Adama Traore and although a shorter price this week for 3 shots I still feel there is some value.
Traore has now had 3 shots in 4 of his last 8 games and considering Burnley average the most shots conceded on average in the league away from home, (17.3) it is an angle I want to get on side.
I have mentioned Chris Wood already and over his last 6 games he has averaged 3.66 shots per game. Betfair offer nearly 14/1 for Traore to have 3+ plus shots and Wood to have 4+ and in a game I can see a high number of shots it is a decent price to get involved with.
Best Bets
Wolves vs Burnley – Burnley 10 shots or more (9/10 Bet 365)
Wolves vs Burnley – Chris Wood to have 3+ shots (13/8 Boylesports)
Wolves vs Burnley – Adama Traore to have 3+ shots and Chris Wood to have 4+ shots (13.83/1 Betfair)
