Wimbledon Tips | 2nd July 2015 | BBC

MARK Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) has his eye on a big upset this Thursday at Wimbledon. Best bets here.

Sam Querrey v Roger Federer | Thursday 14:30 | BBCi

Originally I wanted to put up Roger Federer to win the 1st set 6-3 or 6-4 at 11/10. All five sets he has won against Sam Querrey have been by this score and obviously his big serve should limit Roger's chances. You still might want to back that if you look at his year-to-date. However, when I saw the price on 1st set tie-break and Querrey's serving stats from his victory over Igor Sijsling in the 1st round, I couldn't resist.

Querrey served 30 aces in his straight sets victory, facing no break points, with 16 aces in the 1st set, winning 95% of his 1st serves. Roger has played 1st set breakers against Seppi, Philipp Kohlschreiber and big serving Karlovic this season, and at 3/1 it looks a great price.

Alexandr Dolgopolov v Ivo Karlovic | Thursday 16:00 | BBCi

We successfully managed to get over 10.5 games in the 1st set of Ivo Karlovic's 1st round match with it predictably going to a tie-break, and with it only being 4/6 this time around, let's instead take advantage of the 7/4 on another tie-break.

Alexandr Dolgopolov's 1st round match against Kyle Edmund also went to a 1st set tie-break before the Ukrainian cruised through 6-1 6-2 in the second and third sets.

Big Ivo fired down 42 aces against Elias Ymer, conceding just one break point opportunity. Dolgopolov did get broken in his 1st set but the game he lost he did double fault twice. Dolgo's last two matches here last year also featured 1st set breakers.

These two have met twice before, once at a major, the US Open, in which Karlovic won a 1st set tie-break. Again for reference, Dolgopolov's tie-break record this year stands at 6-10, Karlovic's 12-20.

Dustin Brown v Rafael Nadal | Thursday 16:30 | BBCi

These two have met once before, last year on the grass in Halle with Dustin Brown trouncing Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-1 and I think he's a great bet at 15/2 to repeat his success in front of the Centre Court crowd.

The flamboyant Brown possesses a big serve and his conventional serve and volley style is naturally suited to the grass. He's won eight of his 10 grass court matches this year and beat Nottingham quarter-finalist Yen-Hsun Lu in four in the 1st round, Lu had beat Felicianio Lopez and Andreas Seppi, and pushed Andy Murray close at Queen's. Indeed Dustin hit a massive 61 winners and if he turns up in the same form I don't think Nadal will be able to cope with him.

Rafa was decidedly shaky against Thomasz Bellucci in round one. Just one ace, five double faults, a mere 59% 1st serves, a negative 21-23 in the winners-unforced error department.

He's suffered early exits in the last three years at Wimbledon (4th round – 1st round – 2nd round) including two against big hitters in Nick Kyrgios and Lukas Rosol. Throw in his lack of self-confessed confidence this year and this looks a big price – Brown was just 4/1 last year, he's nearly twice the price here.

I also like the look of Brown to win the 1st set at 4/1 given Rafa's slow starts here. Bellucci broke him in the 1st set (albeit going on to lose – unsurprising given how uncomfortable he is on grass), but previous to that Rafa's lost the 1st set in eight of his last nine matches here.

Best Bets

Sam Querrey v Roger Federer – 1st Set Tiebreak (3/1 Coral)

Alexandr Dolgopolov v Ivo Karlovic – 1st Set Tiebreak (7/4 Coral)

Dustin Brown v Rafael Nadal – Dustin Brown to win (15/2 Boylesports)

Dustin Brown v Rafael Nadal – Dustin Brown 1st Set Winner (4/1 Ladbrokes)

10/1 Djokovic Or 18/1 Murray (Paddy Power)

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