Wimbledon - Ostapenko to punish Kerber

TENNIS analyst Gavin Mair (@gavinnightmair) returns with his best bets from Thursday's action on Day ten at Wimbledon.

Jelena Ostapenko v Angelique Kerber | Thursday 12th July 2018, 13:00 | BBC

There is not much any player can do to stop Jelena Ostapenko when she is firing on all cylinders and so far at Wimbledon that has very much been the case. The 2017 French Open champion hits each shot harder than the last and when she hits her spots you better hope that the radar is having an off day.

Angelique Kerber will stand on the other side of the net. The German lefty is a counter puncher by trade and wins her matches primarily by getting one extra ball back, drawing errors from her opponent, and exploiting the open court that is created by her rallying style.

This will be a contrast of styles and whilst the odds assume that the more experienced Kerber will make it through to the final, there is a strong case for Ostapenko to be the winner.

The outcome of this match will rest very much on the form of Ostapenko – and a word of warning – it could therefore easily be a comfortable win for either player.

The Latvian is a former Wimbledon Junior champion and her game, despite what you may read elsewhere, is very much suited to the grass. The argument put forward against Ostapenko’s grass prowess is that her service data isn’t the best but with Ostapenko it doesn’t matter. If she is serving or returning the aim will be the same – trying to win the point in as quick a way as possible.

Ostapenko has good form weeks and bad form weeks, whilst Kerber has greater consistency but doesn’t find the top level as Ostapenko so often. Kerber makes the latter stages of tournaments more consistently but when Ostapenko gets to this stage it takes a brave person to oppose her.

In Premier level semifinals and higher since 2014, Ostapenko has won two thirds of her matches compared to the 50% of Kerber. On grass against top 10 opponents since 2014 Ostapenko has won two thirds of her matches, compared to Kerber’s 50/50 record.

Against top 10 players in 2018 Ostapenko has a 2/1 winning record – and the defeat came in Stuttgart when Ostapenko was injured. Kerber has a 5/8 winning record against top 10 opponents this season.

Since 2014 in grass court matches Ostapenko has a 3/0 winning record, whilst Kerber has a 5/5 winning record against elite power hitters.

In their run to this stage of the tournament Ostapenko has the significantly better performance data, including creating and taking a far greater ratio of break point chances.

The match is on Ostapenko’s racket and I believe the 29/20 on an Ostapenko victory with BetStars is good value.