CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Super Sunday's showdown between West Ham and Spurs.
West Ham vs Tottenham | Sunday 21st February 2021, 12:00 | Sky Sports
Spurs will be hoping they can go to within three points of West Ham United on Sunday afternoon at the London Stadium.
The Hammers turnaround has been nothing short of remarkable. Many questioned the appointment of David Moyes back in December 2019. When he joined they were just a point above the relegation zone and their future as a Premier League club looked uncertain. Fast forward 14 months and they’re now sitting in fifth and very much in the discussion for a Champions League spot.
Spurs meanwhile are representing the ‘yin’, or the negative side, of the yin-yang concept. Whilst West Ham were struggling and are now flying, Mourinho’s men are the exact opposite.
Back in November, murmurs of title talk could be heard amongst Spurs fans as their side got off to a spectacular start. But now we see them looking over their shoulder at the bottom half of the table and questions being asked about their mentality, their style and most of all their manager.
The North-Londoners have lost four of their last five and are on a slippery slope.
Key stats
West Ham:
- Commit on average 10.6 fouls per game when playing at home this season.
- Receive on average 8.5 fouls per game playing at home this season.
- Seen 2+ cards in 2/4 home games against other sides in the top half.
- In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 0/4 occasions.
- Have lost each of their last three home league games against Spurs.
- There has not been a draw in any of the last 11 games between these two when West Ham have been playing at home.
- David Moyes will be looking to beat Mourinho for the first time in 15 attempts.
Team news:
- David Moyes is hoping to recover Michail Antonio in time for this one.
- Darren Randolph and Fabian Balbuena will also be assessed, but Arthur Masuaku, Andriy Yarmolenko and Angelo Ogbonna miss out.
- Moyes may name the same XI that started the 3-0 win over Sheffield United, which would see Jarrod Bowen lead the attack.
Tottenham:
- Commit on average 10.7 fouls per game when playing away this season.
- Receive on average 13.2 fouls per game when playing away this season.
- Seen 2+ cards in 3/4 away games against other sides in the top half.
- In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 2/4
- Have lost four of their last five EPL games – as many as in their previous 28.
- Only with Chelsea in 2015-16 has Mourinho lost more games in a single league campaign than this one.
- Harry Kane has scored 11 goals in 15 EPL games against West Ham – only against Leicester City has he scored more in the competition (14).
Team news:
- Serge Aurier will miss the trip to West Ham and after Matt Doherty played the full 90 minutes against Wolfsberger, Japhet Tanganga may start at right-back.
- Giovani Lo Celso is also sidelined, but Sergio Reguilon is back in training and could return to the XI.
- Jose Mourinho also has a decision to make at centre-back, with Davinson Sanchez at risk of being dropped following a disappointing performance at Manchester City.
Referee: Craig Pawson
- Awards 3.50 yellow cards per game on average this season.
- In his last 20 games officiated, the home side has seen at least a card on every occasion and 2+ cards in 11/20.
Analysis
I scoured through this one to see if there were any plays I really liked for cards or free-kicks. But to be honest, these two sides are very inconsistent and with the ref being of a similar ilk, it’s hard to confidently make a card-based pick. However, there were two other wagers that I really really like the look of.
My first bet is for both teams to score and for there to be 3+ goals in the match. Both sides have found the back of the net in four of the last five meetings between these two at the London Stadium and they also managed it earlier on this season in the reverse fixture.
Both sides have also scored in four of Spurs last six away games. There’s a lot on the line in this one and with Mourinho currently in the firing line, Harry Kane coming back fresh after a week off and West Ham in fine form, i fully expect a number of chances taken in this game. As such, i think 6/5 for this bet to land again in this fixture is overpriced.
My second pick is relatively simple, we just need either the Hammers or Spurs to come away with a victory and for there to be at least two goals in the game. I’ve discussed why I think there will be goals but for this one to land, we also need a winner!
West Ham have not played out a draw with Spurs in any of their last 11 home meetings – with the claret and blues winning four and Spurs claiming victory in seven.
We saw a draw in the reverse fixture in dramatic fashion thanks to Manuel Lanzini, but with David Moyes side a much more confident outfit since that game, I think they go for the win and either get it or allow themselves to be countered and hand Spurs the three points – I just can’t see this being a draw again.
Best Bets
West Ham vs Tottenham – Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals (6/5 Bet365)
West Ham vs Tottenham – West Ham or Tottenham Double Chance and Over 1 Goal (7/10 Bet365)
