CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Monday evening's showdown between West Ham and Aston Villa.
West Ham vs Aston Villa| Monday 30th November 2020, 20:00 | Sky Sports
David Moyes and his West Ham side welcome Aston Villa to The London Stadium knowing that if they can claim all three points, they’ll jump above Monday night’s opponents into seventh. A win for Villa, however, would see them move into the European spots.
The Hammers currently sit nine points away from the drop-zone and are in a strong position to challenge higher up the table. They’ve had some excellent results against teams like Manchester City, Tottenham and Leicester but it’s the sides around them that they’ll want to be ensuring victories against.
West Ham lost just once in their last seven games (away to Liverpool) and will be hoping they can stretch their unbeaten home run to four matches.
Dean Smith’s side has caused some colossal upsets so far this season, the pick of the bunch undoubtedly being their 7-2 home demolition of champions Liverpool. That result led to people wondering what might be in store for them this season if they could sustain their ruthless attacking football.
Unfortunately, they followed up that result with three home losses on the spin to, with respect, much lesser sides. However, it seems they prefer being on the road, winning all three of them so far by an aggregate of 7-0.
It’s a curiously poised Monday night match-up, with West Ham undefeated against The Villans in their last six home matches in all competitions and Villa yet to concede away from home so far this season.
Key stats
West Ham:
- Commit on average 11 fouls per game when playing at home so far this season.
- Receive on average 8.3 fouls per game when playing at home so far this season.
- Have seen 2+ yellow cards in 3/4 home games so far this season (75%).
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 2/4 occasions (50%).
- Have seen under 2.5 goals land in EIGHT of their last NINE matches against Aston Villa in all competitions
- Are undefeated in their last SIX home matches against Aston Villa in all competitions.
Team news:
- Andriy Yarmolenko tested positive for COVID-19 during the international break so it is touch and go as to whether he will be able to feature.
- Michail Antonio is nearing a return to fitness but after Sebastien Haller's match-winning goal last weekend he may not be rushed back into action here.
Aston Villa:
- Commit on average 15 fouls per game when playing away from home so far this season (most in the league).
- Receive on average 15.3 fouls per game when playing away from home so far this season (most in the league).
- Have seen 2+ yellow cards in 2/3 away games for far this season (66.67%).
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 2/3 occasions (66.67%).
- Have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 away EPL matches.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in SIX of Aston Villa's last SEVEN EPL games.
- Have won their last THREE EPL away matches. Have never won each of their first FOUR away games before.
- Are winless in their last FIVE away EPL matches against West Ham, failing to score in FOUR of those visits.
- Have not won THREE consecutive top-flight games in London since 1990.
Team news:
- Along with the defeat suffered at the hands of Brighton, Villa were dealt a real blow with an injury sustained by Ross Barkley in the opening minutes and he will not feature here.
- Last weekend he opted to bring on Bertrand Traore (in place of Barkley) and move Jack Grealish infield, though bringing Conor Hourihane into midfield and pushing John McGinn forward is another alternative.
Referee: Peter Bankes
- Averaging 3.33 cards per game this season in the EPL after handing out TEN yellow cards in THREE EPL matches.
- Awards an average of 22.33 fouls per game this season.
Analysis
My first pick is a Bet Builder. I’m going with Under 4 Goals and for Aston Villa to pick up a card.
Under 2.5 Goals has landed in EIGHT of West Ham’s last NINE matches against Aston Villa in all competitions and so I’m playing it a little safer as I do not see FOUR goals in this game. For this to land we then just need the Villans to pick up a single card.
Referee Peter Bankes has awarded the away side a card in 17 of the last 20 games that he has officiated and Dean Smith’s side commit more fouls on average than anyone in the league.
Villa are also averaging exactly 2.00 cards per game on the road so far this season so I think it’s extremely likely that at least one Villa player goes into the referees’ book.
My second pick is for Villa to have 13+ shots. I’m surprised by the price of this relatively low line considering it landed in this fixture last season when Villa didn’t have the creativity they do now. The Hammers have allowed visitors 13+ shots in 3/4 of their home games this season and they welcome a side who like to have lots of shots. This exact bet is 10/11 on other betting sites yet we’re getting over evens here.
Following on from the second bet, interestingly, Aston Villa’s Trezeguet has had more shots without scoring than any other top-flight player this season (19). He also has the highest Expected Goals (xG) figure of players yet to score this season. I think he starts and he’ll be desperate to break his duck.
Best Bets
West Ham vs Aston Villa – Under 4 Goals and Aston Villa Over 0 Cards (5/6 Bet365)
West Ham vs Aston Villa – Aston Villa 13+ Shots (6/5 SkyBet)
