THE BUNDESLIGA continues on Sunday and Tom Love (@TomLove_18) is on-hand to preview the match-up between Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg.
Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg | Sunday 7th June 2020, 12:30 | BT Sport
Sunday kicks-off with a big game between Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg who are fighting for survival and Europe respectively. Bremen had taken seven points from a possible nine before their midweek defeat to Frankfurt but in all honesty they were lucky to do so. Their two wins in that run came against the massively overachieving duo of Freiburg and Schalke and both by a single goal to nil.
Bremen deserve to be down there too, as in the final third they’ve been extremely disappointing from a creative perspective. They’ve often failed to create 1+ Expected Goal (xG) and their constant swapping of frontmen doesn’t help their case.
You also have to question how much that midweek game took out of Werder – Wolfsburg have had the whole week to prepare whereas Bremen looked jaded in the second half on Wednesday after employing an energetic press in the first half against Die Adler.
Florian Kohfeldt would’ve been left bewildered once again at his teams sheer ineptitude when it comes to defending set-pieces. The Riversiders have now conceded a massive 18 goals from set-piece situations now and they simply fail to follower their runners, it’s embarrassing really and that could really cost them against a tall and physical Die Wolfe outfit.
Bremen's set-piece weakness
That brings me onto one of my favourite selections of the game which is Wolfsburg’s 6ft4 American centre-half John Brooks to attempt a shot in the game which is priced at 13/10 with Coral on their BuildYourBet feature.
Brooks will be one of the tallest players on the pitch and a key target from Maxi Arnold’s deliveries. Looking into the stats Brooks has managed to have a shot in five of his last seven games and 10 of his last 16 so I’m surprised we can get odds against here. He’s also a bulbous 18/1 to score anytime with Betfair and I couldn’t put anyone off a small go on him or fellow centre half Mario Pongracic (14/1) given how suspect the hosts are from dead balls.
Looking at the more general markets I think Wolfsburg are a decent enough price at odds-against. Considering the extra few days preparation under the excellent Oliver Glasner they should have enough to get past this toothless Bremen side.
Wolfsburg boast one of the meanest defences in the league and given the paltry data Werder are putting up they shouldn’t have to score too many goals to take the win. With that in mind the 21/20 offering from Unibet looks a play on an away win.
Best Bets
Wolfsburg v Werder Bremen – Wolfsburg to win (21/20 Unibet)
Wolfsburg v Werder Bremen – John Brooks 1+ shot (13/10 Coral)
