CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Super Sunday's showdown between Tottenham and West Brom.
Tottenham vs West Brom | Sunday 7th February 2021, 12:00 | BT Sport
Spurs welcome West Brom to the capital knowing that this may be their best opportunity of re-finding their early season form and getting their top-four ambitions back on track. Meanwhile, for the Baggies, it’s an opportunity to claim a much needed three points and to pile the misery on Jose Mourinho and his men.
Spurs have been utterly woeful in recent week and look a shadow of the side that had title-winning ambitions towards the back end of last year. It has coincided with the Injury to Harry Kane who leads their forward line and always poses a threat.
With his absence, Spurs have looked completely out of ideas and utterly toothless. The North-Londoners struggled to make simple passes and their movement non-existent. If that carries on on Sunday, relegation candidates West Brom might just feel their luck could be in.
If The Baggies are to pull of a shock win then they’ll need to work much harder and be far more organised than they have so far this season. They’ve been far too easy to play against and given away some silly goals that have cost them dearly.
They’ve picked up results away to Liverpool and Man City, but it’s the games against the teams around them in which they’ve struggled and it’s left them in a precarious position. Can they get another result away to one of the Big Six?
Key stats
Tottenham:
● Commit on average 14.4 fouls per game when playing at home (most in the league).
● Receive on average 11.8 fouls per game when playing at home (fourth-most).
● Have seen 2+ cards in 2/4 home games against sides in the bottom half this season.
● In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 2/4 occasions.
● Tottenham have been losing at both half time and full time in their last three league matches.
● Tottenham have seen under 2.5 goals in six of their last seven home matches against West Brom in all competitions.
● Tottenham are undefeated in 12 of their last 13 home matches against West Brom in all competitions.
● Have lost just one of their last 26 league home games against promoted sides (1-3 Vs. Wolves in 2018.)
● Son Heung-min has been directly involved in 16 goals in his last 15 appearances against promoted sides.
Team news:
● Tottenham have no fresh injury concerns for the welcome of West Brom, with Sergio Reguilon, Harry Kane, Dele Alli and Giovani Lo Celso still out.
● Gareth Bale was an unused sub against Chelsea, but Jose Mourinho may bring the winger into the starting XI, while Harry Winks is also an option for the Spurs boss should he wish to continue with a 4-2-3-1.
West Brom:
● Commit on average 10.4 fouls per game when playing away.
● Receive on average 10.4 fouls per game when playing away.
● Have seen 2+ cards in 2/5 away games against sides in the top half.
● In those games, the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 1/5 occasions.
● There have been over 2.5 goals scored in West Brom's last seven league games.
● West Brom has conceded at least two goals in their last seven league matches.
● West Brom has failed to win 11 of their last 12 league matches.
Team news:
● Grady Diangana remains West Brom's only injury issue and the winger will be assessed ahead of the trip to Tottenham.
● Deadline day loan signings Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Okay Yokuslu are free to start on Sunday after both were ineligible for the trip to Sheffield United in midweek.
● Maitland-Niles may feature in the middle of the park alongside Jake Livermore, while Conor Gallagher, Kieran Gibbs and Darnell Furlong could return to the side.
Referee: Stuart Attwell
● Has the highest cards per game average amongst all referees to have officiated a Premier League game this season – 4.50 cards per game.
● In his last 20 games officiated, Attwell has awarded both teams at least a card in 19 of them (95%).
● In games where a top-half side is playing a bottom half team, Attwell has awarded the home side 2+ cards on 3/3 occasions.
Analysis:
My first pick is for Tottenham to see 20+ booking points. I know the form isn’t there in terms of them picking up cards on home soil, however, I think this is a brilliant price and here’s why I think it is a great bet.
This is going to be a scrappy game with neither side being able to afford a loss and this Spurs side need to show some spirit after a number of lacklustre performances recently.
They commit the most fouls per game on average when playing at home this season and Sam Allardyce will be wanting to hurt Spurs whilst they’re in the midst of seemingly struggling to even string a pass together.
Not only this but we have the leagues most card happy referee in Stuart Attwell. In the three games he’s taken charge of this season, where a top-half side are facing a lower half side, he has shown the home team at least two cards on all three occasions. He doesn’t let much go and I think if Spurs manage to score, they will want to break up any potential threat that West Brom create.
Because of this, I’m expecting a couple of Spurs players to end up in the ref’s book.
My second pick is for there to be under 2.5 goals. As I alluded to above, these two are in horrendous form. Spurs look like they don’t know what they’re doing and look extremely disjointed whilst not really looking like much of a threat.
I know they come up against a side who concede more shots than anyone else in the league but West Brom will be able to welcome new loan signings Maitland-Niles and Okay Yokuslu into the fold and this will add some much-needed grit and quality to their ranks.
This is a big game for both sides and with these kinds of fixtures and the motivation behind them, the unders are the way to go.
Finally, I’m having a bet builder of both teams to see at least a card and under four-match goals at a cracking price of 23/20 – I’d have this at around evens.
I’ve already discussed the cards but Attwell has awarded both teams at least a card in 19 of his previous 20 games officiated and I see him carrying that on here given the current predicaments of these sides. I’ve also discussed the goals line and to play it a little bit safer I’ve added under 4 goals to this selection.
Best Bets
Tottenham vs West Brom – Tottenham Over 1.5 Cards (6/4 Bet365)
Tottenham vs West Brom – Under 2.5 Goals (21/20 Betfair)
Tottenham vs West Brom – Both Teams Over 0 Cards and Under 4 Goals (23/20 Bet365)
