ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Southampton host Wolves in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon.
Southampton vs Wolves | Sunday 26th September 2021, 14:00 | Sky Sports
Start to life in the Premier League has been far from easy for new Wolves boss Bruno Lage, with his side losing to nil in 4 of their 5 matches so far.
It’s not for the want of trying, though, as his sides have posted a huge 82 shots in those 5 matches, an average of over 16 per game.
The attacking philosophy that he was appointed for has been evident for all fans and neutrals to see, but their inability to put the ball in the back of the net has cost them so far.
Brentford shocked them at Molineux last weekend, even after giving them a chance to get back into the match after Brentford were reduced to 10 men for half an hour.
As for the hosts, Southampton, they are the draw merchants of the division so far, drawing 4/5 games, scoring four goals but only conceding six.
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side lost Danny Ings in the summer but replaced him with Adam Armstrong, but the latter is still finding his feet on the south coast.
As for a bet, there is one bet that is yet to land in the PL for Wolves and that is Both Teams To Score. It defies logic that both sides haven’t netted in any Wolves game as of yet.
Adama Traore should have scored a one-on-one in both their opening day defeat to Leicester and the defeat to Spurs.
As for Raul Jimenez, he is the type of striker who needs that first goal to get him firing, and with Trincao and Traore besides him, I think the tide will turn for Lage’s men and I see them scoring here.
That is why this game points me towards BTTS. Since Wolves’ promotion in 2018/19, all but one of the Premier League tussles between the pair have seen both goals breached.
Both sides will fancy their chances against each other, with neither side setting the league a light. To get a price of 29/20, we can add both sides to be carded.
Adding both sides to be carded looks good on these stats:
- Southampton have been carded 2+ times in 4/5 this season
- Wolves have been carded 2+ times in 4/5
- Saints’ opponents have been carded twice or more in 4/5
- Wolves’ opponents have been carded twice or more in 5/5 (100%)
- Wolves’ opponents are averaging 3.4 cards against per game this term.
Referee Andy Madley is far from the most prolific for cards, however I feel as though the game will lend itself to a few cards, and so the man in the middle will have to get his book out.
One man who has been carded on 100% of his starts this season is Kyle Walker-Peters. The Englishman, known to be right-back, has been filling in the left back role this season.
He has made two fouls and been booked for both. Perhaps he is struggling positionally, as he only earnt four cards in the whole of last season.
He has been the first player booked against both Newcastle and City, so perhaps the 18/1 for a repeat there is too big, but the 5/1 for him carded anytime is a good enough price.
Both opposition left backs in Wolves’ last two games have been booked, Rico Henry and Danny Rose, and KWP could continue the trend.
If he is to get an early card then there is every possibility he could get an early bath, too. 100/1 to be sent off with Sky Bet is a whopper.
The odds suggest there is only a 1% chance of him seeing red, and given his direct opponent (Adama Traore or Trincao) and he is out of position, that is too big. It is 30/1 and 40/1 elsewhere.
Best Bets
Southampton vs Wolves – Both Teams To Score and Both Teams To Be Carded (29/20 Bet365)
Southampton vs Wolves -Kyle Waker-Peters to be shown a card (5/1 SkyBet)
Southampton vs Wolves – Kyle Waker-Peters to be sent off (100/1 SkyBet)
