SCOTTISH football aficionado Gerry Taylor (@thefurlongpole) continues his new column, sharing his NAP, next best and long shot ahead of the weekend action.
NAP – Aberdeen to win to nil (20/21 Boylesports)
The new Aberdeen boss Stephen Glass will be watching this lunchtime Scottish Cup tie from afar, as he quarantines after his arrival from Atlanta. Paul Sheerin oversees the next couple of games for the Granite City side.
It's been well documented that the visitors have had a poor time of it (especially scoring goals), which ultimately lead to the departure of long-standing manager Derek McInnes. Defensively though, the Reds are still pretty solid at the back – with 6/11 clean sheets recently.
This is a very quick turnaround for league one strugglers Dumbarton, having just lost at home on Thursday evening to Airdrie.
In fact the part-timers are at the end of a bruising weekly schedule, having had to play Saturday- Tuesday-Thursday-Saturday. So it goes without saying, their resources and energy levels will be tested to the full. The Sons, similar to the Dons this term, have found scoring a big issue – failing to score in 7/9 games recently. Jim Duffy was bemoaning his charges lack of a cutting edge post-match on Thursday again.
So in summary, the visitors will be wanting to impress their new manager, against the toothless hosts, who play two levels below them, hence the Boylesports 20/21 on Aberdeen to win to nil, is a price that appeals to me given the Sons obvious lack of firepower.
Next best – Queen's Park HT-FT (31/20 BetVictor)
The Spiders have continued where they left off, on their march to the League Two title. Two very professional wins on the road – 2-0 at Brechin and 3-0 at Albion, have saw them go 13 points clear of their rivals. The on-loan Celtic midfielder Luca Connell has been a stand-out since joining up, as witnessed by his magnificent goal in midweek.
Albion are one of the chasing pack, and are having a decent season. They come into this after a midweek local derby against Stenhousemuir. The Binos won deservedly 1-0, but they now have a few injury doubts coming into this one, with star man Andy Ryan hobbling off late in this game. So it's possible the visitors could be weakened.
A few Queens Park stats:
- 9/12 clean sheets in the league
- The Spiders have scored exactly 3 goals in 6/8 recently.
- The host's suggested HT/FT bet has landed in 3/3 of their games since league two restarted.
Whilst this on paper won't be Ray McKinnon's charges easiest game of the season, the numbers suggest that the hosts are still worth backing to be leading at Half Time and Full Time, at BetVictor’s 31/20.
Long shot – Ayr and Morton to score Over 2.5 Goals double (12/1 Betfred)
These two Championship teams are coming up against two part-time sides in Clyde and East Fife who have just played Saturday-Tuesday-Thursday. It's a bit of a price play, banking on the two league one outfit's squads being stretched to the limit.
Whilst Ayr and Morton are not the most prolific in the league, they come into this fresh, and both have seen recent improvements under new management. The Honest Men had an eye-catching 3-1 win at Dundee last month, whilst the ‘Ton have beaten form team Queen of the South recently, and despatched Dunfermline from the last round of the cup.
Both will be focused on being in the hat for the last 16, and with the possibility of tiring legs of their opponents, the double is suggested as a long shot poke, at 12/1 with Betfred.
Best Bets
Dumbarton vs Aberdeen – Aberdeen to win to nil (20/21 Boylesports)
Queen's Park vs Stirling – Queen's Park HT-FT (31/20 BetVictor)
Ayr and Morton to score Over 2.5 Goals (12/1 double Betfred)
