SCOTTISH football aficionado Gerry Taylor (@thefurlongpole) continues his new column, sharing his NAP, next best and long shot ahead of the weekend action.
NAP – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (1/1 SkyBet)
This head-to-head was the curtain-raiser in October for the condensed Championship season. The match didn't disappoint either – it turned out to be a cracking match with Hearts the victors 6-2.
Another tasty encounter and goals could be on the menu once again, some stats:
- The Jambos opening 13 league matches saw an incredible 55 goals scored(4.23 goals per game.
- In their 18 league matches, the Jam Tarts games have had a total of 64 goals(3.55).
- The Dee have saw a very healthy 60 goals scored in their 16 games(3.75).
- Robbie Neilson's side have saw both teams to score in 12/18.
- The Dark Blues have saw btts cop in 13/16(all the last 10 banked).
We might not get the eight goals we got last time out, when these two clashed, but I'm expecting a similarly lively encounter. The Gorgie hosts haven't been as strong lately, drawing their last three, with both teams scoring.
James McPake’s visitors from Tayside, have definitely more attacking options in their squad, than they did when they kicked off their season at Tynecastle. They also have a 3-1 home win against the boys in maroon under their belt, so won't be sitting back in this one.
So for this week's NAP, I'm going for an evens poke for Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score with Skybet.
Next best – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)
These two faced up as recently as February 23rd, sharing four goals in the Highlands. This could be another Championship match with some goals in it. Here's some numbers:
- Peter Grant's charges matches have saw both teams to score land in 13/18.
- The Wasps last 11 games have saw btts bank.
- The Clackmannanshire outfit have scored in 8/9 as hosts.
- The hosts have also saw over 2.5 goals land recently in 5/5.
- Caley have saw both teams to score in 12/16.
- The Highlanders have netted in all of their games on the road 9/9.
Alloa have increased their goal power recently, with the signing of Innes Cameron from Kilmarnock. They will be going all out here for the three points, as they need to try and climb of the bottom of the league.
I expect another lively, feisty encounter here, with caretaker manager Neil McCann in the dugout, searching for his first win in his temporary role. Hence Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score appeals at 10/11 with Bet365.
Long shot – Under 1.5 Goals (14/5 Paddy Power)
Ayr are currently on the lookout for a new manager, since dispensing with the services of Mark Kerr after a dire recent run. Morton themselves don't have a permanent boss either, with Anton McElhone continuing in his caretaker role until the end of the season.
This game looks like a tight dour battle, with neither teams games usually goal laden:
- The hosts have saw 11/17 games go under 2.5 goals
- The ‘Ton have played in 6/17 that have went under 1.5 goals.
- The visitors have saw 10/16 games, where under 2.5 has banked.
- 5/16 of the Ayrshire sides clashes have saw under 1.5 goals cop.
- The Honest Men have failed to score in 4/5 matches recently.
With both teams looking over their shoulders in the league, and having similar records of a paltry one win in their last 10 matches, it's fair to say I'm not expecting a classic at the Tail of the Bank.
It looks an ideal head-to-head for unders backers. So with that in mind, I'll have a pop on the Under 1.5, which is 14/5 with Paddy Power.
Long shot – Jason Cummings to score 2+ goals (14/1 Bet365)
It's never a bad idea to follow a goalscorer who is on a nice little recent run. Dundee new signing Jason Cummings comes into that category with 3 goals in 304 minutes thus far, for the Dark Blues.
The ex-Hibee has previous in scoring against the Jambos, and will be champing at the bit to get on the scoresheet once again. Last time, he had a couple of seasons in the Championship, he was scoring approximately 18 goals or so in the minutes equivalent of 22 matches. So he is pretty lethal at this level.
He is very much a confidence/streaky scorer, and is no stranger to bagging a brace or two throughout his career. Whilst he never really got going in England, he is very much a big game type player, highlighted with two goals in a cup-tie against Liverpool.
I'm confident Cummings can score in what is potentially an end to end game(he is 9/4 anytime, 15/2 to score first) but in the spirit of putting up a nice priced long shot – I'll suggest a speculative punt on him to score to 2+ goals at 14/1 with Bet365.
Best Bets
Hearts vs Dundee – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (1/1 SkyBet)
Alloa vs Inverness – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)
Morton vs Ayr – Under 1.5 Goals (14/5 Paddy Power)
Hearts vs Dundee – Jason Cummings to score 2+ goals (14/1 Bet365)
