SCOTTISH football aficionado Gerry Taylor (@thefurlongpole) continues his new column, sharing his NAP, next best and long shot ahead of the weekend action.
NAP – Queen's Park to win both halves (2/1 Bet365)
There is a big gulf between the Champions elect and the team propping up the bottom of the league – Brechin. Here are some stats for the Glebe Park men.
- City have failed to score in their last 4 league games.
- The hosts have drawn a blank in in 7/11 in the league.
- Michael Paton's charges have scored a paltry total of 5 goals.
- Brechin have shipped 27 goals in 11 matches.
City brought in three experienced defensive-type players, prior to the restart of the league campaign a week ago. Unfortunately two of these players, Abdul Osman and Gerry McLauchlan came off injured in midweek, with hamstring and calf muscle injuries – so both will be major doubts for this clash.
The Spiders have started were they left off, with a comfortable win against a decent Stranraer side last weekend. Ray McKinnon's full timers, have scored 3-3-3-3-2-3 in their last half a dozen league matches. In half of these games, they won both halves. The strong squad that the visitors bring to Glebe Park, should have way too much for the struggling City.
The hosts remarkably don't have a player that has scored a league goal this term, currently in their squad. So looking at the strength of the visitors, and the glaring lack of goals of Brechin, a fresher Queens Park(no midweek game)to win both halves at 2/1 with Bet365 must have a decent chance of landing.
Next best – Montrose to score Over 1.5 Goals (10/11 Bet365)
In a low-scoring league this season, a stat that stands out is – Clyde have managed to concede a whopping 19 goals in their last 6 league games. This total is actually at least 10 goals worse than all the other sides. Add into the mix, their poor away form in their last nine – W0-D1-L8.
Overall since they returned to League One, a couple of seasons ago – they are W3-D3-L11 on the road. So as you can see Danny Lennon’s men are not the best of travellers.
Stuart Petrie's charges are having a fine season, sitting in third place in the league. The midweek Cup romp in the Highlands, winning 7-1 at Nairn, won't have harmed their confidence either. I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Gable Endies at 11/10 to win, but perhaps safer is Bet 365’s 10/11 for the hosts to score over 1.5 goals.
The hosts last sixteen homes read well – W11-D1-L4. The four defeats came at the hands of the two teams who were expected to go clear in this division (Falkirk and Partick), and now in the Championship, Raith.
Clyde are pretty much solely reliant on David Goodwillie's goals, but their continued poor showing away from Broadwood Stadium, alongside the hosts strong home record, makes Montrose a confident goals selection.
Next best – East Fife to score Over 1.5 Goals (15/8 SkyBet)
Along similar lines to the previous pick – the Fifers are first in the six game form table, whilst the aforementioned Montrose are second. They have also a similarly strong home record – W7-D4-L1 in their last 12. The hosts have actually scored exactly 2 goals in each of their last five homes.
Cove usually do all of their best work at home, as seen by their recent record on the road – 1 win in 5, only scoring 3 times in those five.
East Fife have recently added the prolific Nathan Austin to their ranks, and he bagged the opener last weekend in their win. I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Fifers at 21/10, but in a game that should have a few goals, 15/8 with Skybet on the hosts to score over 1.5 goals appeals as the value bet.
Long shot – Ryan Christie to score first (8/1 Bet365)
The Scots put in a very decent performance in the 2-2 draw on Thursday night against the higher ranked Austria at Hampden Park. Ryan Christie put in a lively performance, playing off Lyndon Dykes up top.
In fact, he was denied a clear blatant penalty in the second half, when his opponent rugby tackled him to the ground. The Celtic attacker looks a shoe-in to partner either Dykes or Che Adams in Israel.
Steve Clarke's charges finished the match very strongly against the Austrians, and will be going all out for all three points against their familiar foes on Sunday. Given how far forward the Scotland boss is playing Christie, and given that he is the penalty taker (Scotland have scored 2 penalties in 5 matches against Israel recently), Ryan is this weekends long shot to score first at 8/1 with Bet365.
Best Bets
Brechin vs Queen's Park – Queen's Park to win both halves (2/1 Bet365)
Montrose vs Clyde – Montrose to score Over 1.5 Goals (10/11 Bet365)
East Fife v Cove Rangers – East Fife to score Over 1.5 Goals (15/8 SkyBet)
Israel vs Scotland – Ryan Christie to score first (8/1 Bet365)
