RB LEIPZIG host Borussia Dortmund in Saturday's standout showdown from the Bundesliga. Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB) is on-hand to preview his favourite fancies.
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund | Saturday 9th January 2021, 17:30 | BT Sport
RB Leipzig welcome Borussia Dortmund to the Red Bull Arena for arguably the clash of the day in Bundesliga with the possibility of being able to reclaim top spot if Borussia Monchengladbach defeat Bayern Munich in the Friday night game. Even so, the opportunity to open a nine-point gap to their visitors should be motivation enough.
In a game that at face value screams GOALS it is interesting to note it has been the defenders that have been impressing recently – in fact Leipzig have conceded the fewest number of goals in the Bundesliga this term, shipping just nine from their 14 games so far, three of which came on their visit to the champions and league leaders, with only three concessions in seven home league games.
Since that aforementioned six goal thriller in Munich, Julian Nagelsmann has tweaked his line up and seen all of the proceeding four Bundesliga games produce Under 2.5 Goals, in addition the last four head to heads here have all seen fewer than three goals with the visitors winning the last two to nil (2-0, 1-0) and in doing so stretch their unbeaten run against Saturday’s opponents to five games in all competitions.
After a disastrous 5-1 home drubbing at the hands of Stuttgart, Lucien Favre was relieved of his duties and so responsibility for extending that run falls to Edin Terzic who will be in charge until the end of the season.
Crucially for the BVB, star striker Erling Haaland has returned from injury which will be a massive boost as they visit a side brimming with confidence and proudly owning the best home record in the division (W6, D1, L0), in fact RBL’s last home defeat was in the previous meeting back in June some 11 games ago (W9, D2) where the Norwegian netted both goals.
Given those strong home stats we may be in for a cautious opening especially when you consider that despite winning four of their seven road trips (W4, D1, L2) Dortmund are one of only three sides who are yet to lead at half time in a Bundesliga away game this campaign and have gone in level in each of their last four league fixtures.
Therefore, I am taking a chance on a first half stalemate at a best priced 7/5 with SBK.
As previously mentioned, Leipzig have been miserly in defence this season and come in to this one on the back of five consecutive clean sheets, four of which have been in the league, a fifth successive Bundesliga shut out here would set a club record, so it would be a massive surprise to see any changes to the defensive unit in such a big game.
One of the aforementioned tweaks has seen Jose Angel Esmoris Tasende, better known to us as Angelino, be deployed further up the pitch as opposed to the left-back or left-wing-back roles he occupied at the start of the season.
The Manchester City loanee has played as an AML or FWL on three occasions this season managing at least one shot on target in each of them and although he may not be as advanced as he was in the victory over Stuttgart, I fully expect the Spaniard to be utilised in more of an attacking role than a defensive one.
That makes the 23/20 on offer from Poker Stars for a Jose Tasende shot on target look a fantastic price to me and one I will definitely be taking advantage of – Ladbrokes also offer 15/2 for those of you looking for best price on him hitting the target at least twice.
With the low liquidity in the market there is a chance this price will have gone by the time this preview goes live, if that is the case shop around and I would be happy to take anything above evens – at time of writing Ladbrokes offer 11/8 and Betfair/Paddy Power bang on even money.
Given the 24-year-old has spent much of the season operating in deeper positions it is incredible to find he is still Leipzig’s top goal scorer with eight goals from 21 appearances in all competitions, with four from 13 league appearances I can’t overlook the odds of 11/2 with Unibet for him to add to his tally here.
In Best Bets I have written Angelino’s name how he is listed with that particular bookmaker – you may also find his name magically changes when you add him to your bet slip!
Best Bets
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund – Half-Time Draw (7/5 SBK)
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund – Jose Tasende to have 1 or more shots on target (23/20 Poker Stars)
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund – Angelino to score (11/2 Unibet)
