CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Sunday night's Ligue 1's standout between PSG and Marseille – Le Classique.
PSG vs Marseille| Sunday 13th September 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
The Parc des Princes plays host to its first Ligue 1 match of the new season and it’s a belter!
PSG couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start this season, falling 1-0 away to newly-promoted Lens during the week. Les Parisiens’ squad has been hit by the COVID pandemic and it’s meant manager Thomas Tuchel has been unable to call on star players Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, Angel Di Maria, Marquinhos, Leandro Paredes, Keylor Navas and Mauro Icardi.
The aforementioned contributed 54 goals to PSG’s tally of 75 goals – a massive 72%. This showed against Lens as despite having the majority of possession, they didn’t have that penetrative attack that we’re accustomed to seeing.
Goalkeeper Marcin Bulka was given just his second appearance between the sticks for Tuchel’s men but played a short ball straight into the path of Lens forward Ignatius Ganago, who dispatched in exquisite fashion.
Now PSG face a Marseille side who look to be able to field, what is essentially, a full-strength XI and will prove an even sterner test.
Last time out, a Duje Caleta-Car brace saw Les Olympiens overcome Brest 3-2 away and they will be fancying their chances of making a dire situation even worse for PSG.
Last season, André Villas-Boas and his side finished second place behind Sunday night’s opponents and will be desperate to put down a marker for the rest of this campaign.
Key stats
PSG:
- Scored the most goals in the league last season (75).
- Have won 17 of their last 19 matches against Marseille in all competitions.
- Scored at least FOUR goals in their last FOUR home league matches.
- Kept a clean sheet in NINE of their last 11 home matches against Marseille.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in their last SIX home league games.
- PSG have been winning at half-time/full-time in 6/7 home games against Marseille.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in their last FOUR home games against Marseille.
- Will be without Mbappe, Marquinhos, Paredes, Navas and Icardi.
- Neymar and Di Maria have recently recovered but are likely to be benched if they’re available.
Marseille:
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in Marseille’s last FIVE games.
- Have won their last FOUR away league matches.
- Scored at least TWO goals in their last FOUR away games.
- Conceded at least TWO goals in their last FOUR matches.
Analysis
My first pick is for Marseille to score 2+ Goals (15/8 SkyBet). Yes, they’re away, yes, it’s a tough ask but with PSG looking utterly toothless against Lens during the week and also being very questionable at the back, it’s a bet I’m all over considering Marseille possess much more quality than Lens. The price is excellent as well – 15/8 represents a 34.8% implied probability.
Marseille have scored at least two goals in their last four away Ligue 1 matches and whilst they have not fared well at the Parc des Princes in recent seasons, they will be against a much depleted PSG side. With so many players missing who are integral to the way PSG dominate, you have to give Marseille a slight edge in this one.
My other bet is for there to be three or more goals in the game overall. This bet has landed in eight of the last 10 games these two have played in all competitions, it has landed in PSG’s last six home games and also in Marseille’s last five matches.
Whilst I don't tend to put too much focus on head-to-head records, the fact it has landed 80% of the time in the last 10 meetings between these two shouldn’t be ignored. Odds of 4/6 represent an implied probability of 60%. With it landing far more often than that, I feel it is slightly overpriced and will be my second bet.
Best Bets
PSG vs Marseille – Marseille to score 2+ Goals (15/8 SkyBet)
PSG vs Marseille Over 2.5 Goals (4/6 Bet365)
