MIDWEEK Premier League! Fantastic! Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) has picked out his three best bets from Tuesday's card here.
Bournemouth v Southampton | Tuesday 19:45 | BT Sport 1
So this is the live game on Tuesday? I don’t know if you agree but blimey there’s been a lot of unsexy live matches in the last few weeks and you can add this to the pile.
I’ve spent a lot of time and effort taking on Bournemouth this season and I’m going in again. There’s no doubt Eddie Howe has done a really good job when you consider the injury problems they’ve had and the fact they lie five points clear of the relegation zone. But…
While they’ll probably stay up I just have a feeling they’ll fall over the line and fancy Southampton to take something here at the Vitality Stadium.
The Cherries have lost three of their last five games in all competitions and in the Premier League have won just two of their last 10 games. Those victories came against Norwich and Crystal Palace, two sides desperately out of form and in five of those 10 games they met current bottom half sides.
Goals have been a problem as well with 50% of those 10 games featuring blanks from Bournemouth and they’ve failed to score in two of their last three games.
I’m always a bit loathe to put too much faith in Southampton. Usually they go off too short a price for me plus of course they went through that spell between November and January where they lost eight of their 10 league matches. Harrowing stuff.
They seemed to have got their shit together now though and were unlucky to lose their unbeaten run at the hands of Chelsea on Saturday. Before that game they had won five of their preceding six league games and had found themselves having a peek at the Champions League qualification spots.
Yes, Saturday was a blow but I’m hoping they can return to form here and add more woe to Bournemouth. They’ve looked a great side this year so far and on 2016 form have taken 16 points compared to nine for the Cherries.
Netbet are offering Saints Draw No Bet at 5/6 and that looks a lovely price.
Leicester v West Brom | Tuesday 19:45
So the Leicester story continues. Actually there’s no reason to think it will end. On Saturday they ticked off another one of their How To Be Title Winners bingo card when ekeing out a last minute winner against a struggling side in an untidy game.
The Foxes are now just 11 games away from winning the title and people are starting to believe it might happen.
On Tuesday they host a West Brom side who’ve been the very antitheses to Leicester’s swashbuckling life-enhancing style.
Despite the fact the Baggies go into this game looking for a third consecutive league win all is not well at The Hawthorns. Fans seem dissatisfied with manager Tony Pulis’ style and their creative players have been injured at various points in the last couple of months.
For all the rightful brouhaha about Leicester’s attacking prowess their defence deserves a huge amount of credit.
They’ve kept clean sheets in six of their last nine matches and at the King Power haven’t conceded since the 14th December. That’s five consecutive home clean sheets in the league!
While N’Golo Kante is out on Tuesday Danny Simpson returns to help that famed defence and I’m expecting a narrow win here.
I like the look of Leicester to win to nil again and Leicester and Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2 but I think the 6/5 on Leicester and Under 3.5 at 6/5 probably represents better value. There’s just a bit more breathing space for West Brom to score and it’s odds against.
Norwich v Chelsea | Tuesday 19:45
As someone with big love for Alex Neil it’s starting to look increasingly worrying for him and his Norwich side as more and more games are ticked off.
Three times in their last five games they’ve conceded late to ship point and you get the impression this will haunt them with then the final scores are on the doors come mid-May.
Back in January they were 3-1 and 5-4 up to Liverpool before succumbing to a last-kick-of-the-match equalisier and losing two points.
Two and half weeks ago they were 2-0 up against West Ham and dreaming of three points before two second half goals for the Hammers punctured their three point hopes.
And of course on Saturday they held leaders Leicester right up till the 89th minute before conceding and leaving the King Power empty handed. Very tough to take.
Their opponents on Wednesday are in a much more positive frame of mind. Chelsea are one of the form teams in the division and haven’t lost in the league since before Christmas against Leicester.
Their impressive 2-1 win at Southampton on Saturday made it 11 games unbeaten under Guus Hiddink in the league and a Top 7 finish looks a realistic prospect now.
They should be approaching this game with relish against a fearful Norwich side and they look worth supporting. The Blues have banged in 13 goals in their last four matches and will sense blood here.
At 7/10 they’re a little short for me so I’ll back them -0.75 at 10/11. This means half my stake goes on them to win (-0.5) and the other half on them winning by more than one goal (-1). The great thing about this bet is that if they win by exactly one goal I’ll pay that part of my stake.
Best Bets
Bournemouth v Southampton – Southampton Draw No Bet (5/6 Netbet)
Leicester v West Brom – Leicester to win and Under 3.5 Goals (6/5 Netbet)
Norwich v Chelsea – Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap (10/11 Netbet)
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