DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday's 3pm Premier League coupon.
Chelsea v Bournemouth | Saturday 14th December 2019, 15:00
Having gone against my usual judgement – where Chelsea are concerned (a Both Teams To Score angle) – against Lille, I am back on the home win and both sides obliging crusade when they take on Bournemouth this weekend.
To date this season, Frank Lampard’s side have won 12 games across the Premier League and Champions League and conceded in eight of those matches.
This weekend they face a Bournemouth side who have lost their last five matches and currently find themselves in 15th place, having averaged just a point a game to date this term. However, the Dorset side have already scored twice against Tottenham, at Leicester and in a home victory over Manchester United. Moreover, nine of their 16 league games this term have seen both sides find the back of the net.
Chelsea have conceded twice at home to Sheffield United this season as well as in matches with Norwich, Wolves and Burnley. Given that Bournemouth possess Callum and Harry Wilson as well as the likes of Ryan Fraser, I certainly believe that Eddie Howe’s side can hurt this Chelsea team.
However, I cannot see them getting anything from the game and the 13/8 Betway are offering on a home win and BTTS looks big enough to me.
Sheffield United v Aston Villa | Saturday 14th December 2019, 15:00
If you were to ask me which of these two sides had more individual quality, I think I would have to go with Aston Villa. I don’t see anyone within the home sides ranks with as much talent as either Jack Grealish or John McGinn. Talent, however, can only take you so far and Sheffield United are one of the most organised, disciplined and hardworking sides I have seen be promoted to the Premier League in my lifetime.
The South Yorkshire outfit deservedly find themselves in the top half of the table, having lost just four of their 16 matches and conceding just a goal a game. Perhaps surprisingly, all of those defeats came at Bramall Lane, with three of those by a one-goal margin.
Their opponents Aston Villa have actually scored four goals more than them but find themselves seven points worse off by virtue of the fact that they have conceded 28 goals in their 16 matches. Six of those losses came by just a single goal and given the number of tight matches the home side have been involved in this term (they have drawn seven league games), I think one goal will be enough to win it.
I did originally consider just taking the single goal margin of victory angle, which is available at 7/5. However, I cannot see Sheffield United losing this match and don’t think the make up of their record does them justice. As they were unfortunate in each of the four losses – against Leicester, Southampton, Liverpool and Newcastle – and were excellent in a recent home victory versus Arsenal and a 3-3 draw with Manchester United.
Given that Villa have lost by a single goal on six occasions already this term and three of United’s four victories also came in this manner, I believe the 3/1 Bet365 are offering on a one goal winning margin for the home side is excellent value.
Best Bets
Chelsea v Bournemouth – Chelsea to win and Both Teams To Score (13/8 Betway)
Sheffield United v Aston Villa – Sheffield United to win by a exactly one goal (3/1 Bet365)
