DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday's 3pm Premier League coupon.
Bournemouth v Chelsea | Saturday 29th February 2020, 15:00
My initial view was that Chelsea looked like a bet in this encounter but seeing that they have conceded in 12 of their 13 away matches this season left me believing that the 4/5 on an away win was a little too skinny to get involved in the outright market.
Their opponents Bournemouth have scored in 10 of their 13 home matches and with the likes of Callum Wilson, Harry Wilson and Josh King among their ranks I believe they have enough to cause Frank Lampard’s side plenty of problems.
Last week Bournemouth lost 3-0 to Burnley but the Dorset side were denied two clear goals in my view, both due to VAR’s inability to tell the difference between a football hitting your shoulder and your arm.
Eddie Howe’s side were arguably the better side before they had a goal disallowed in the same passage of play that also saw them concede a penalty and they go into this game knowing that this is anything but a free hit.
That said, I don’t trust them defensively and for all of Chelsea’s defensive deficiencies, I do believe that the London side will have too much for Bournemouth overall.
The Cherries have conceded 43 goals this term, a figure only exceeded by Norwich, West Ham, Aston Villa and Leicester and have lost at home despite scoring against both Manchester City and Wolves this term. Chelsea are certainly the master of the victory and BTTS angle, winning six of their 13 away matches despite conceding.
As I have written previously, this was also a popular bet when Frank Lampard was Derby manager so while his goalkeepers certainly haven’t helped him this season, I do believe that there is also the argument that he struggles to put together a solid defensive side.
With that in mind, the 12/5 William Hill are offering on a Chelsea victory and BTTS has to be the call. For the more adventurous of you I would suggest a 2-1 away win at 8/1 with Bet365. Chelsea have won in this manner in four of their last 13 away matches in all competitions so it looks like good value to me.
Newcastle v Burnley | Saturday 29th February 2020, 15:00
I wouldn’t usually consider an Under 1.5 Goals angle at shorter than 2/1 but you don’t usually see a side who create as few chances as Newcastle do. Only Watford have had fewer shots on target than Newcastle’s 84 this season, while Steve Bruce’s men Expected Goals (xG) total of around 22 (from 27 games) is three fewer than any side in the division.
The Tyneside club have only scored in one of their last five matches – and those goals came against League One Oxford – and their 13 home matches this season have featured just 24 goals.
Six of those games would have seen the Under 1.5 Goals bet oblige and I struggle to see goals in this encounter. Since Burnley were promoted three years ago two of the five matches between these two sides have failed to see two goals scored and I think that the Under 1.5 Goals bet at 9/5 with BetVictor represents good value.
I really struggle to see either side scoring two goals – Newcastle have managed such a feat in just three of their 13 home games this term and Burnley in only four encounters on the road.
Having been bitten in this manner before, however, having a saver on the 1-1 at 11/2 with Bet 365 is also worth a few pennies. I don’t think either side would be too bothered with such a scoreline and hopefully neither will we be.
Best Bets
Bournemouth v Chelsea – Chelsea to win and Both Teams To Score (12/5 William Hill)
Bournemouth v Chelsea – Chelsea to win 2-1 (8/1 Bet365)
Newcastle v Burnley – Under 1.5 Goals (9/5 BetVictor)
Newcastle v Burnley – Newcastle 1-1 Burnley (11/2 Bet365)
