SATURDAY 3pm Premier League kick-offs are back on the agenda and we asked value hunter Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) to share his favourite fancies from MD4.
Brentford vs Brighton | Saturday 11th September 2021, 15:00
To shake things up a bit, I have decided to try to find one cards, goalscorer and match bet across the 3pm kick-offs. Hopefully that is a simpler way for me to understand which markets I am best served in and anyone following in knows which bets to double down on and which to steer clear of.
I start in West London, with the battle of the data modellers, as Matthew Benham owed Brentford take on Tony Bloom’s Brighton and it is the Bees I will be siding with in this one.
I did consider a couple of Brentford player in other markets (Toney as a goalscorer and Norgaard as a card option) but ultimately decided to back the home side in the Draw No Bet market.
Brentford are undefeated in the Premier League so far this season and have won each of their matches – at home to Arsenal and away to Crystal Palace and Aston Villa – by the expected goals (xG) metric. To date this season they have averaged 0.69 xG against per game, which shows how few quality chances they have conceded.
Their opponents this weekend, Brighton, have a reputation under Graham Potter of failing to take their chances but that has been less of an issue this season as The Seagulls scored twice against both Burnley and Watford. While the latter was a deserved victory, they were fortunate to win at Turf Moor and they were pretty poor in defeat at home to Everton last time out.
Moreover, Brighton’s win at Turf Moor was only their second win away from home since February. In the eight matches in that sample, they’ve lost at West Brom, Sheffield United, Wolves and Arsenal, all sides that this Brentford side would claim to be more capable than.
All things considered, I think it is the home side should be marginal favourites – and the draw is a real runner – so I will take the 19/20 with BetVictor on Brentford Draw No Bet.
Leicester vs Manchester City | Saturday 11th September 2021, 15:00
It is very rare that you get the opportunity to back the most likely goalscorer in a team that you expect to score several goals in a game at 37/20 but this is definitely the case with Ferran Torres.
Pep Guardiola has started the Spaniard in the frontline in every game this season and I think this s an exceptional bet all this considered.
Torres has scored two goals in three City matches this term, his xG is 2.11 across those matches so it is not as if they have been two fortuitous strikes. He is the player most likely to get hances for City and while the fact he played in Kosovo on Wednesday concerns me a little, I expect Pep to start him and I expect a City side who score 2.27 goals a game since the start of the last season to find the net with relative ease when they are against a Leicester team who are suggesting that they cannot defend.
The Foxes have allowed 50 shots in matches against Wolves, West Ham and Norwich and I don’t expect City’s personnel to see that almost 17 shots per game to reduce.
All in all, Torres’s 37/20 with Unibet seems like good value and were this game a month a way I do not believe you would get this value.
Southampton vs West Ham | Saturday 11th September 2021, 15:00
Final bet comes on the south coast as Southampton face West Ham.
The bet is James Ward-Prowse, a spoiler with five fouls to his name in three games this season, as well as one card in those matches and 15 cards in his last 79 Premier League matches, to be carded.
I am happy to take the 5/1 with Bet365 on the Saints lynchpin finding his way in to the referees notebook.
Best Bets
Brentford vs Brighton – Brentford Draw No Bet (19/20 BetVictor)
Leicester vs Manchester City – Ferran Torres to score (37/20 Unibet)
Southampton vs West Ham – James Ward-Prowse to be carded (5/1 Bet365)
