CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Wednesday evening's La Liga contest between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid.
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Wednesday 17th June 2020, 21:00 | La Liga TV
We’re about to see a myriad of matches as leagues from around the world return from lockdown.
On Wednesday night Osasuna go head-to-head with Atletico Madrid; both sides saw 1-1 draw in their returns with Osasuna surprising many by playing extremely well against Champions League-chasing Real Sociedad.
Meanwhile, Atletico couldn’t capitalise on Getafe’s loss to Granada and remain in sixth.
Key Stats
Osasuna:
- Commit on average 15 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Receive on average 10.6 fouls per game when playing at home (the lowest in the league).
- When playing at home against the top half of the table they have received 2+ cards on 6/7 occasions and in 4/4 games at home to teams in the top 6.
- In the games at home against the top 6 they have seen 2+ cards in the second half 3/4 times.
- When playing at home against the top 6 the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 4/4 occasions.
- Their XG for at home is 25.22 but they have only scored 20.
- Their XG against at home is 16.96 but they have conceded 20.
- In their home games against the top 6 they have scored in 4/4 but they have also conceded at least 1 goal in 4/4 and 2+ in 3/4.
- Have the fifth worst disciplinary record in La Liga overall and the fourth worst at home.
Atletico Madrid:
- Commit on average 14.2 fouls per game when playing away.
- Receive on average 13.4 fouls per game when playing away.
- When playing away to teams in the bottom half they have seen 2+ cards in 7/7 games and 3+ in 6/7.
- When playing away to teams in the bottom half the opposition has seen 2+ in 6/7 and 3+ in 6/7.
- Their XG for away from home is 18.33 but they have only scored 12.
- Their XG against away from home is 13.78 and they have conceded 13.
- Have the most draws away from home this season and have not won away since December.
- Have only scored 2+ goals away from home in 3/13 games this season.
Analysis
It’s exceptionally tight near the top of the table as just nine points separate third from ninth. At the time of writing, Atletico currently lie in the Europa League qualifying spot and can jump into fourth if results go their way. To do so they will need to improve on their away record; no team has seen more draws (eight) on their travels in the league this season than El Atleti.
Osasuna are also just three points off of a fight for a place in the top half and are much stronger at home. Despite only losing four games at home this season, all of them came against opponents from the top half.
It looks as though Ricardo De Burgos is going to be the referee in this fixture and he has handed out an average of 5.25 yellow cards per-game. The most recent game he has been in charge of also saw Osasuna playing at home against Espanyol in what saw the home side receive three yellows in a feisty affair.
De Burgos has also overseen one game where Atletico have been away to a team in the bottom half, on that occasion Atletico saw five yellows.
I'll be dipping into the Bet Builder markets to play Osasuna Over 0.5 First-Half Cards, Both Teams Over 1 Card and Atletico to score Over 0.5 Goals.
Best Bets
Osasuna v Atletico Madrid – Osasuna Over 0.5 First-Half Cards, Both Teams Over 1 Card and Atletico to score Over 0.5 Goals (TBC)
