BACK with three more NFL Sunday picks, it's Tom Selwyn (@tom_selwyn).
Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints | Sunday 18:00
A nice matchup to be taken advantage of in New Orleans here and that’s Saints RB Mark Ingram going up against the Cincinnati run defence. I like him going over the 90.5 yards line in this one.
Since coming back from injury, Ingram has arguably been the best back in the league. He’s averaged over 130 yards in his last three games, hitting at least 100 in each. He should have another nice game against a reeling Bengals team.
Cincinnati is currently ranked 31st against the run, giving up 143 yards a game. Last week, to Cleveland’s trio of RBs, they gave up 169 yards – and that was at home! In a noisy dome, it will be even trickier to stop the Saints, who should have their way on the ground in this one.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers | Sunday 21:25 | Sky Sports 2
This game between two potent offences at Lambeau Field on Sunday night could have big playoff seeding implications. I’ll be backing the far superior QB in Aaron Rodgers to take control of this one.
The QB facing off against Rodgers is former Jets QB Mark Sanchez who had a solid 2 TD performance against Carolina in his first start for Philadelphia last week. But that’s not who Mark Sanchez is really – in 64 career games, Sanchez has had 71 INTs and lost 20 fumbles. Chip Kelly’s system is very QB friendly, but Green Bay are not going to give Sanchez as much time as the Panthers did and you should see a turnover or two from him this week.
Conversely, Packers QB Rodgers is on fire right now and is especially potent when playing at Lambeau. In his last 10 home games, he’s thrown for 26 TDs with 0 INTs. Green Bay as a whole just doesn’t give the ball away often, turning it over only eight times all season.
With the Eagles ranking 21st against the pass, look for Rodgers to have another big day in a Green Bay win.
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals | Sunday 21:25
It looks like it will be a very close game in the desert, with some bookies not even offering a handicap line on the match. I’m going to be siding with the away team and backing the Lions to get the win.
One of the reasons for this is because the Cardinals lost their starting QB Carson Palmer to a torn ACL last week. Although backup QB Drew Stanton came in and played well (and has played well earlier in the season), he is still relatively inexperienced and will be going up against the #1 ranked defence in the Lions.
Arizona boasts a good defence and will look to blitz Lions QB Matthew Stafford often, looking to force him into a mistake. Luckily for Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson made his return last week and looked back to his best. He is complimented nicely by fellow WR Golden Tate who is having a break-out season. Even without Johnson drawing coverage he was making plays and this should continue with him back in the line-up.
I believe this will be a close and potentially low-scoring game, but in the key areas I believe that the Lions have the advantage and should come out on top.
Best Bets
Cincinatti Bengals @ New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (10/11 Ladbrokes)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers – Green Bay -5 (10/11 Betfred)
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals – Detroit Lions to win (Evens Skybet)
