NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets available from Monday Night Football.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Tuesday 30th October 2018, 00:15 | Sky Sports
NFL Week 8 concludes with what looks set to be one of the more, let’s say, less competitive games as the 2-5 Buffalo Bills host Tom Brady and his 5-2 New England Patriots.
Now I’ll keep this one short, as simply put, there isn’t much to be said…
Whilst the Bills boast one of the more impressive defensive units in the league, their offence quite literally stinks. Averaging a league worse 11.6 points per-game, yes, you read that right, 11.6. In their last four games combined, Buffalo have put up a grand total of 31 points.
For sure, the Bills be given some confidence by the play of the Patriots on defence, but not enough to think they can keep up with Brady’s offense. Given the Patriots are allowing an average of 26 points, to go along with 390 yards per-game, the Bills just don’t possess enough firepower to mount a challenge on Monday night.
It looks to be a three-way race for the number one pick this year for the Bills, along with Oakland and San Francisco.
Low lines forecast in Buffalo
Given the Bills defence has shown its ability to stiffen up on the bigger occasions this season, I fancy this to be one of the lower-scoring games of this week, and the line looks quite generously low at 44. If I was to take anything, it would be the Under, best priced at 24/25 with Marathon.
Speaking of lines, Brady’s line is another that, to me, looks far more enticing to take the Unders. His spread is currently set at 299.5 with Sky Bet, but I have a feeling it might drop as the game edges closer.
On his seven games so far this season Brady has only thrown for over 300 yards twice, and has failed to reach the mark on any of his three road games. If this game plans out how I, and most people expect, it looks set to follow a trend from last year.
New England ran out comfortable 23-3 winners in Buffalo last season, leaning much more towards their running game. They pounded the ball for 191 yards combined, whilst Brady threw for just 258 yards.
Given the Bills boast one of the best pass defences in the league, and rank 26th against the run, surely we’re set for a similar style of game. Brady Under 299.5 Passing Yards at 5/6 with SkyBet is certainly where I’ll be hedging most of my money for this game.
Patriots to overcome the handicap
The Bills look set to once have Derrick Anderson under the gun – the 35-year-old journeyman back-up went 20-31 for 175 yards and three interceptions last week against the Colts. Any wonder as to why I’m leaning towards the Patriots against the spread.
With Anderson questionable, is almost unthinkable that things could get much worse for the Bills, but they could. With the possibility they might actually have to turn to Nathan Peterman for this game (a man whose thrown nine interceptions on just 79 career passes) is enough to basically give the win to the Patriots before they’ve even turned up.
Going with the trend that Anderson will play, 20-31 for 175 yards last week shows he likes short underneath completions and doesn’t have much ability when I comes to getting the ball downfield.
I trust the Patriots defence enough to keep the Bills offense away from the end zone, and get out of Buffalo with a comfortable win. Take New England -13.5 at 20/21 with Bet365.
Best Bets
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills – New England Patriots -13.5 (20/21 Bet365)
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills – Tom Brady Under 299.5 Passing Yards (5/6 SkyBet)
