NFL expert Tom Selwyn (@Tom_Selwyn) shares his expert opinion on the best bet available from Monday Night Football.
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers | Tuesday 7th November 2017, 01:30 | Sky Sports
After a couple of weeks of them, it feels like another so-so matchup for Monday night, this time between the Dolphins and the Panthers.
The Dolphins have been so hard to watch this season and are currently last in the league for points with just 14.5 per-game, as well as being 31st in yards with 270.2. The Panthers have not been much better offensively, but can at least hang their hat on the league’s #1 defence.
Miami has struggled to run the ball all season and have also traded away their best RB in Jay Ajayi a couple of weeks ago. Since then the carries have been split almost evenly between Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams.
SkyBet haven’t put up lines for either of them as I type this, but Paddy Power have elected to go with Drake and given I expect this committee approach to continue, along with a tough Panthers defence to go against, I’ll be backing Drake to go Under 47.5 rushing yards at 5/6 (Paddy Power).
These sort of bets can be vulnerable to the one big run, but I have a lot of confidence in Carolina’s ability to shut down Miami’s run game. The Panthers are only allowing 78.4 yards per-game on the ground, which is the second-best mark in the league, but more importantly they have not given up any 40+ yard runs and just three 20+ runs all season.
With Miami logging just 77.6 yards per-game on the ground, they should find it very hard to get anything going against Carolina.
I do think that Drake will become Miami’s #1 RB in the future, but with the Dolphins sticking with a committee approach for now, as well as having to go against one of the league’s best run defences, I don’t think he’ll find much success on Monday night.
Best Bets
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers – Kenyan Drake Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (5/6 PaddyPower)
