NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets available from Monday Night Football.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers | Tuesday 16th October 2018, 01:15 | Sky Sports
As the Jimmy Garoppolo-less San Francisco 49ers head into Green Bay on Monday night, it doesn’t exactly look like it will be the most competitive contest of the NFL weekend, which in turn, means there might be a few potential betting angles.
Aaron Rodgers and his Packers have by no means set the league alight this year. Off the back of a divisional loss to Detroit last weekend, the Packers sit at 2-2-1, but this, in theory, shouldn’t be a problem against a depleted 49ers outfit.
Green Bay holds an undefeated home record through three games this year after their shutout of the Buffalo Bills a few weeks back, and I expect a similar sort of game to that, all be it with maybe a few more points for the opposing team.
For the 49ers, losing franchise quarterback ‘Jimmy G’ essentially meant it was the ‘end of the season’ for them. And now, sitting at 1-4, I’d say it’s likely they already have one eye on next season, with a potential high draft pick to go along with it.
I think it’s fair to say however, backup quarterback CJ Beathard has so far surpassed expectation, performing against both the San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals, all be it accounting for seven turnovers through there games – you aint winning with those numbers.
So whilst it’s all well and good putting up 300+ yards and two touchdowns, it’s fair to say, Beathard is not winning with those turnover numbers.
Beathard can clear a low line
One positive for the betting angle on Beathard’s play so far, is that with this being a game in theory the 49ers should be playing catch-up, he will hopefully be slinging it more, increasing his potential for more yardage and turnovers.
Whilst the markets aren’t out yet for turnovers (that is still a potential avenue to go down), I think his line is awfully low given how the game could potentially play out.
Beathard has easily cleared his line of 245.5 yards in games he was chasing, throwing for 298 and 349 in back-to-back loses. I will undoubtedly be laying into the 10/11 with SkyBet for him to go over 245.5 passing yards.
Given that, Beathard’s favourite target through these past two weeks, George Kittle, could go over his line too. Set at 70.5, Kittle, who has 11 receptions and 208 yards through two games with Beathard, could be in line for a similar workload, and could well clear his line with Sky Bet.
Packers’ slow starts
With the Packers, I think starting fast is the key word when I comes to their offence. It took them near on three quarters before they turned it on last week against Detroit and by that they’d already dug themselves in too big of a hole.
Even against Buffalo, Aaron Rodgers wasn’t scared in venting his frustration at their performance on the offensive side of the ball. This week however, I’ll be looking for Green Bay to finally take control of a game through their run game.
Whilst they’ve persisted with committee approach through these first five weeks, splitting the carries between Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones, with the odd touch to Ty Montgomery, they haven’t exactly performed ‘badly’ this year. Williams took six carries for 33 yards last week, whilst Jones accumulated 40 yards off just seven touches out of the backfield.
But given the way the game was going, the Packers soon abandoned the run game.
Touchdown angle
Flipping back just a few weeks to the Packers shutting out the Bills, Jones again performed well, taking 11 carries for 65 yards to go along with a touchdown.
Simply put, the bigger the Packers lead = more carries for the running backs. Hence why I’m looking towards Jones to be the biggest benefactor this week against a 24th ranked 49ers run defence.
Taking the 2/1 with SkyBet for him to get in the endzone is certainly appealing.
Best Bets
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers – Aaron Jones to score a touchdown at anytime (2/1 SkyBet)
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers – CJ Beathard Over 245.5 Passing Yards (10/11 Sky Bet)
