NFL nut Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) runs the rule over best bets from Sunday's Week 4 action.
Last week was the first losing week of the season, with just one of the five recommended bets landing. Danny Amendola surpassed the yardage line to bring home the only pay-out, and while the Eagles secondary got torched again – Marvin Jones was the receiver to take advantage, not the predicted Kenny Golladay.
In the later match-up, nothing could be done after Vance McDonald left the field injured, killing the anytime touchdown and yardage bets recommended.
Onto Week 4 and I’ve got three fancies from two games and all going to plan we’ll be back on track.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens | Sunday 29th September 2019, 18:00
The Cleveland Browns pre-season hype has all but gone. The playmakers they signed on offense have not been able to compensate for the dreadful offensive line, which has left Baker Mayfield playing scared.
More worryingly for Cleveland this week, is the injuries they’re dealing with on defence. Their top two cornerbacks – Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams – are both suffering from hamstring issues and starting safety Morgan Burnett is dealing with a quad strain.
With that in mind, let’s look to the Baltimore offense to see who is most likely to take advantage of the second-tier defence the Browns will field.
Lamar Jackson has shown glimpses in these early stages that there is more to his game than running. Through three weeks, he’s thrown the ball a total of 100 times (33.3 p/g), and targeted Marquise Brown most of any receiver (27 targets, 27% of total).
Brown only caught the ball twice on nine targets last week against the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs, but the targeting rate is something to get excited about. He’s an explosive receiver that will be more likely to score you a 50-yard TD than a five-yard TD, and he has the pace to beat Cleveland’s top corners, let alone their backups.
He’s got two TD’s in the opening three, albeit they both came Week 1. That said, his price is a little longer than it should be this week as a result of the two-week drought, and that’s what I’d recommend backing.
You can get Brown as an anytime scorer at 21/10 on Unibet.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals | Sunday 29th September 2019, 21:05
Through three games this year, Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has passing yardage totals of 195 (v CIN), 300 (@ PIT) and 406 (v NO). Furthermore, he’s got a 7/0 TD/INT ratio, and has rushed for an extra 2 TD’s as well. It’s been a blistering start.
This week he has an optimal matchup against Vance Joseph’s defence in Arizona, which has allowed the NFL’s fourth-most pass plays of 20 yards or more (15). The defence is still missing its starting cornerbacks (Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford) which should allow for further big weeks from wide receivers Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.
Notably, in Arizona’s opening three games, the QB they faced has been ranked fourth (Matthew Stafford) second (Lamar Jackson) and sixth (Kyle Allen) each week in terms of passing yardage and touchdowns. This is, in part, down to Arizona’s ‘hurry-up’ offense, which, despite not winning a game yet, does seem to suit rookie QB and #1 draft pick, Kyler Murray.
This leads to quick possessions and turnovers, allowing the opposition offense more time on the ball and more opportunities to score than they normally would get.
Russell Wilson has already put up big, big numbers so far, but he could be in for his biggest yet.
Aiding him even further, is the lack of trust in Seattle’s starting running back, Chris Carson. Last week he put up his third fumble in as many games, with this one proving costly – being returned for a 53-yard defensive scoring play. His touches may be more limited this week as a result, which will be all the better for Wilson.
To my disbelief, you can grab Wilson to throw for Over 257.5 Yards at 10/11 on Boylesports. 258 yards would be his second-lowest throwing total of four weeks, and honestly, I think the number should be closer to 300. It’s my favourite bet of the three-week season so far.
If Wilson is to get those numbers, then he’ll need a receiver on the other end making plays. D.K. Metcalf is my pick of the bunch this week to catch one of those throws for a score. You can get him best priced as an anytime scorer at 15/8 on Betfair.
Best Bets
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens – Marquise Brown to score a touchdown at anytime (21/10 Unibet)
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals – Russell Wilson Over 257.5 Passing Yards (10/11 Boylesports)
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals – D.K. Metcalf to score a touchdown at anytime (15/8 Betfair)
