NFL nut Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) runs the rule over best bets from Sunday's Week 10 action.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals | Sunday 10th November 2019, 18:00
The winless Cincinnati Bengals took the decision to drop long time starting QB Andrew Dalton during their bye week. Fourth round pick Ryan Finley will take the helm against MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and his Baltimore Ravens (6-2), who are flying high after dismantling the previously unbeaten New England Patriots.
The Ravens boast the second-best run defence which will force Finley to throw the ball a little more than he’d perhaps like on his league debut. He had a solid enough pre-season campaign, with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio, but he will be without the Bengals best weapon, AJ Green, and will have a largely ineffectual Joe Mixon supporting him in the run game. It’s not exactly ideal conditions.
I highly doubt he is the Bengals long-term solution, and I doubt even more so that he is a better option this week than the benched Andy Dalton. Time will tell.
On the flip side of the ball, I don’t have much confidence in their defence either. Statistically, they have the leagues worst rushing defence – allowing 177.6 yards per-game – and have a middle-to-low end pass defence – allowing 258.1 yards per-game, ranked #22 league wide.
Given the strength of the Ravens with the ball on the ground, Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram will be licking their lips at the prospect of Week 10’s match-up, with no better game this season to bolster their statistics and find a score.
You can get Ingram as an anytime TD scorer, best priced at 8/11, (as short as 1/2 on some sites), and Jackson at 1/1 – both on Betfair. Sure, 8/11 isn’t a bookie-bashing price, but it’s still great value for a play which I think is absolutely nailed on this week. Ingram to score is my Week 10 NAP.
Elsewhere in the markets, I think it’d be a logical play to back the Ravens to dominate the match-up. Two prices I love are for the away side to Score Points In Every Quarter (11/8 SkyBet) and to Win Both Halves (11/10 William Hill).
Recommending three separate plays that all rely on one team doing well certainly add a bit more risk, but I really don’t see a way in which the Bengals can stop their AFC North rivals. No Andy Dalton, still no AJ Green, a weak pass defence and an even weaker run defence – all the factors point towards a handsome Ravens victory.
Player Prop Bet: Devin Singletary
Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary showed last week just what he is capable of, rushing for 95 yards on 20 attempts (4.75 yards per-carry) and adding his second score of the season.
He was hampered with a hamstring injury that derailed his season after a promising opening two game start, but now that he is healthy and overtaken Frank Gore outright as the Bills’ #1 back, I expect him to continue on from his Week 9 success.
Singletary is a threat in both the run and pass game so he truly can be a 3-down back for the Bills. Week 9 saw him finally get into the double digits for rushing attempts and given his success that should continue.
He is averaging 8.36 yards per-carry this season, albeit on a small sample size of touches, but with those numbers he’d only need to rush the ball 8 times to beat Sky Bet’s rushing yardage line, set at 62.5.
The Cleveland Browns defence, his opponents, are ranked 30 of 32 when facing the run this season, averaging 141.3 total rushing yards per-game.
The Bills coaching staff love him, and if he sees anywhere near the volume he did last week then he’ll smash that yardage line with ease.
Player Prop Bet: Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston and his Tampa Bay Bucs are facing the Arizona Cardinals this week, and if previous results are anything to go by, he should be throwing the ball plenty.
Arizona have been exciting to watch. New head coach, new quarterback and exciting playmakers on the offensive side of the game. Their mantra has been to play fast and try to outscore their opponents. They sit with a 3-5-1 record, which doesn’t sound great, but they have already improved upon their 3-16 2018 season.
Sky Bet have Jameis Winston’s pass completion line set at 23.5, at even-money. Again, I like the over in this spot.
Through nine games this season, the opposition QB to the Cardinals has completed an average of 25.9 passes per-game. While that’s only 1.4 more attempts than the completion line set by Sky, the even money price tips the value in the customers favour.
Six of the nine games this season would have resulted in the over bet coming in.
Since Week 3, Tampa have scored 23 or more points in every game. They only have one win to show for it from the six games, but more importantly, it highlights the fact they tend to be behind and they end up in high scoring affairs. Both of those factors trend towards the QB throwing the ball frequently.
I’ve no doubt that Winston will have the ball in his hand enough to surpass the 23 completions needed, the biggest worry will be his accuracy. That said, the value is there to bet with reasonable confidence.
Best Bets
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals – Mark Ingram to score a touchdown at anytime (8/11 Betfair)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals – Baltimore Ravens to Score Points In Every Quarter (11/8 Sky Bet)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals – Baltimore Ravens to Win Both Halves (11/10 William Hill)
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns – Devin Singletary Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (5/6 Sky Bet)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals – Jamies Winston Over 23.5 Passing Completions (1/1 SkyBet)
