NFL nut Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) has bagged five winners from his last seven selections. Here he shares his favourite Sunday fancies.
Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints | Sunday 18:00
I wanted to write about this game as soon as I spotted it a few weeks ago. I have a bit of a thing for Drew Brees and to be honest, the New Orleans Saints as well – they're a hard team not to like.
The reason I wanted to get involved in this match-up was more about Denver though. That fearsome defence, that unit that almost won a Super Bowl despite the offence, the one with Von Miller, Aqib Talib and the rest…
They're overrated. Yeah, I'm ready for you on Twitter – I don't think they are half as good as they're cracked up to be and if any offensive unit can prove that it's the Saints at home. Don't get me wrong; I think the Denver linebackers are top class – Talib is up there with the best but he's not suiting up.
The Broncos are the number four rated defence in the league – they're number one against the pass but there are three reasons why I believe they will get exposed here.
Talib's absence undoubtedly weakens an already banged up secondary. Nobody can expose that weakness better than Brees, who has an outstanding receiver corps right now. Finally, and most importantly, it's on the ground where I believe New Orleans can win this game.
Denver is rated 29 of 32 against the run – a stunning stat that, eh? They give up 126 yards per-game. For the first time in forever, New Orleans have a ground game.
Tim Hightower and Mark Ingram have combined for 352 yards in the past two weeks – a huge number. I don't see how a bad run defence can improve sufficiently when facing an aerial attack as good as that run by Brees. If they stack the box, Brees will cut them to pieces with the long ball.
Saints are a great bet in this one at 21/20 (Paddy Power) off a -3 spread start, as is Mark Ingram to beat his 55.5 rushing line at 17/20 (Ladbrokes).
Ignore the game against Seattle where Ingram was limited to five carries, he went off for a monster 158 in San Francisco and 62 against another overrated defence, Kansas City. Quotes of 55.5 are tempting enough to get me involved.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals | Sunday 21:25
OK, short and sweet. This should be an absolute stroll for Arizona. The fight is strong in San Francisco – the fight for title of worst team in football that is.
This is all a repetitive. Sorry, not sorry. I've written so many times how bad this 49ers team is but that's hardly something I would claim as some kind of insight. Even the novice NFL fan can see they're bad. As in bad in every position on the field.
San Fran gives up an average 193 yards per-game to runners. This week they face David Johnson. I really think he will have a massive day. I know he'll have a massive day. – 125 yards is one of the highest rushing lines I have ever seen.
My fear with something that high is that Arizona win this game early and take him out of the firing line. DJ catches a lot of balls as well and the ease of this game puts me off recommending that line.
I want to get involved though and can't resist over 3.5 touchdowns for the Cards at 10/11 (Ladbrokes). Far from one dimensional, even Carson Palmer will have enough to move the ball quickly downfield with or without Johnson.
Expecting Arizona to score 30 plus points, 10/11 is a cracking price when 4/5 is generally best price elsewhere.
At the time of writing, there are no lines available on DuJuan Harris. San Fran will have to run the ball to keep it out of Kaepernicks hands as much as possible. The Cards give up an average 102 yards per-game on the ground.
Odds makers may get distracted by the possible return of Carlos Hyde but I see Chip Kelly staying with the hot hand. If anyone quotes under 60 yards for Harris, I would be all over that.
Best Bets
Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints – New Orleans Saints -3 (21/20 Paddy Power)
Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram over 55.5 rushing yards (17/20 Ladbrokes)
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals – Arizona Cardinals over 3.5 touchdowns (10/11 Ladbrokes)
